Will the Bank of Canada cut rates on March 18?

A cut looks unlikely. Soft jobs and weak Q4 growth argue for patience, but the WTI oil shock raises headline inflation risk. The Bank will likely hold while assessing Monday’s CPI and any sign of broader price pressure before considering future moves.

How could the WTI oil shock affect inflation in Canada?

Higher crude lifts gasoline prices, which can push headline CPI higher near term. If $100 WTI persists, analysts at RBC see CPI near 3% for a time. The key risk is spillover into services and wages. Without broadening, policymakers may look through it.

What data points matter most for the rate decision March 18?

Watch headline CPI, trim and median core, gasoline’s impact, shelter costs, and wage growth. Governor Macklem’s guidance on tolerance for temporary energy driven inflation is also key. These signals will steer the outlook for the Bank of Canada interest rate and front end yields.

What should Canadian borrowers do ahead of the decision?

Expect variable mortgage rates to hold if policy stays unchanged. Fixed rates will follow bond yields after CPI and guidance. Consider budgeting for higher payments, reviewing prepayment options, and keeping flexibility on renewal terms until the Canada inflation outlook becomes clearer.

Global Market Insights

Bank of Canada Rate, March 15: Jobs Slump vs Oil Shock Keeps Hold Likely

ByDanny Kontos March 16, 2026March 16, 2026

The Bank of Canada interest rate is widely expected to stay on hold at the rate decision March 18. A weak jobs report and soft Q4 growth argue for patience, while a WTI oil shock tied to Iran–Hormuz raises inflation risk. RBC notes a moderate policy response unless $100 crude persists, which could push CPI near 3% in the near term. We outline the Canada inflation outlook, what to watch in Monday’s CPI, and how Governor Macklem might frame policy trade offs.