Bitcoin price Oct 18: Analysts warn of $95K pullback despite strong RSI recovery signals
Bitcoin currently trades near $107,000 for 1 BTC, marking roughly a 15 % drop from the October high near $126,000. Analysis reveals a key tension: technical indicators like the RSI are flashing a rebound, but macro risks and weak momentum suggest a possible deeper correction. This dual signal forces us to consider whether Bitcoin is gearing up for fresh upside or facing a realistic pullback to the $95K region. For investors, balancing these opposing signals is critical.
Technical signals show mixed messages
Bullish RSI divergence
Bitcoin’s daily relative-strength index (RSI) is at its lowest since April. One article notes: “daily RSI at its lowest since April… the four-hour chart showed a clear bullish divergence developing.”
This suggests selling pressure may be tapering, offering a potential bounce.
Support in danger
However, on TradingView, analysts warn that if Bitcoin falls below the nearby support around $105,000, the door opens to a slide toward $95,000 or even $91,000.
For investors: the takeaway is clear, buying simply because of a favourable RSI may be risky until support holds.
Macro and market risk factors
Banking and credit jitters
Global financial turbulence is spilling into crypto. Banking worries, trade-tension headlines, and credit risk fears have triggered some of the largest leveraged liquidations in crypto history (over $19 billion wiped out).
Correlation to traditional markets
Bitcoin’s year-to-date return (~14 %) now aligns with the S&P 500 after recent declines. This means Bitcoin’s risk profile is not isolated; it shares broader market vulnerabilities.
Investor takeaway: Macro stress may override a technically bullish setup.
On-chain & institutional context
Strength from institutional flows
Despite recent jitters, institutional interest remains. Some ETFs continue to see inflows even as speculative leverage is flushed.
Distribution vs. accumulation
Studies using Wyckoff schemes now suggest Bitcoin may be in a distribution phase—where prior growth momentum fades and prices flatten or decline. One analysis argues that Bitcoin’s “door is open to the $95,000 zone.”
For investors: Even with strong institutional backing, a shift in phase implies caution rather than aggressive expansion.
In another post on X, an analyst predicted the price drop to $98k:
Investor reaction/market sentiment
Market sentiment is clearly weak: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 22/100, a zone of “extreme fear.”
On Reddit:
“Even though Bitcoin bounced back to around $112,000, caution remains high.” (Reddit)
Social threads show traders bracing for a drop rather than chasing new highs.
Investor Takeaway: Sentiment is leaning defensive. In such environments, bullish indicators may face heavy headwinds.
Conclusion
In sum, Bitcoin is at a crossroads: technicals hint at recovery, but macro stress and phase-analysis point to downside risk. For investors, the smart move is not to assume a clean rebound to all-time highs, but to remain cautious until support near $105,000 holds and macro tailwinds align. A prudent stance may be to wait for confirmation or set protective stops if exposure is large.
FAQs
Bitcoin is trading around $107,000 on October 18, 2025.
Because support near $100K is being tested and momentum appears to be shifting toward a distribution phase.
Yes, RSI is showing bullish divergence, suggesting selling pressure may be easing.
Credit and banking stress, trade tensions, and risk-off sentiment in equities all pose headwinds.
Consider reducing exposure or hedging until support holds and clearer momentum returns. A pass-through period may be prudent.
Disclaimer:
The above information is based on current market data, which is subject to change, and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your research.
