Bitcoin USD Faces $69K Test as -6.94% Plunge Triggers $2.5B Liquidations
Bitcoin USD (BTCUSD) is experiencing significant downward pressure as of February 1, 2026. The leading cryptocurrency has declined 6.94% to trade at $78,648, marking its lowest level in nine months. This sharp pullback follows a broader crypto market correction that triggered over $2.5 billion in liquidations across major exchanges. Market participants are now watching critical support levels as macroeconomic uncertainty and policy shifts weigh on investor sentiment. Understanding the technical backdrop and near-term catalysts is essential for tracking Bitcoin USD’s next major move.
Why Is Bitcoin USD Dropping Today
Bitcoin USD’s recent decline stems from multiple converging factors that have rattled crypto markets. Macroeconomic headwinds, including shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical tensions, have driven a broad-based risk-off sentiment across financial markets. Traditional safe-haven assets like gold have surged to new all-time highs above $5,600 per ounce, pulling capital away from riskier digital assets.
The crypto market has also faced operational challenges. Bitcoin miners are struggling with profitability as the asset’s price falls, with mining profit ratios hitting 14-month lows according to recent data. A winter storm impacting major U.S. mining operations has compounded production difficulties. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw massive outflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone recording $317.81 million in redemptions on a single day, signaling institutional retreat from the asset.
Bitcoin USD Technical Analysis
Bitcoin USD’s technical picture shows mixed signals with some concerning indicators. The RSI at 48.91 sits in neutral territory, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, though momentum remains weak. The MACD histogram at 721.64 shows a bullish divergence with the signal line, but the negative MACD value of -245.82 indicates bearish pressure persists.
The ADX at 25.89 confirms a strong downtrend is in place, with price action decisively below key moving averages. Bitcoin USD trades at $78,648, well below the 50-day average of $89,813.60 and significantly below the 200-day average of $104,526.08. Support levels are critical: the Bollinger Band lower level sits at $84,208.69, while the upper band at $93,209.41 represents near-term resistance. The Keltner Channel lower band at $83,600.01 provides additional downside support.
Bitcoin USD Price Forecast
Bitcoin USD’s price trajectory depends heavily on whether support levels hold or break decisively lower. Monthly Forecast: $92,791 represents a +18.0% recovery from current levels, suggesting a bounce toward the 50-day moving average if buying pressure emerges. This move would require stabilization at current support zones and renewed institutional interest.
Quarterly Forecast: $125,516.64 implies a +59.5% rally over the next three months, returning Bitcoin USD toward its October 2025 peak of $126,296. Such a move would require a reversal of current bearish technicals and positive macro catalysts. Yearly Forecast: $95,894 suggests a +21.9% gain by February 2027, reflecting a more conservative recovery scenario. Forecasts may change due to market conditions, regulations, or unexpected events.
Market Sentiment and Trading Activity
Market sentiment toward Bitcoin USD has shifted decidedly negative as of February 1, 2026. Prediction market data shows traders now see nearly even odds between a drop to $69,000 and a recovery to $100,000, a dramatic shift from previous bullish consensus. This 50-50 split reflects genuine uncertainty about Bitcoin USD’s direction and suggests capitulation may be near.
Trading activity reveals intense liquidation pressure. Over $2.5 billion in crypto liquidations occurred as Bitcoin USD fell, with Bitcoin accounting for $121 million of that total on decentralized exchanges alone. Volume remains elevated at 1.17 billion USD daily, well above the 657 million average, indicating active selling rather than quiet consolidation. The relative volume of 1.88x confirms traders are actively participating in the decline.
Bitcoin USD Liquidation Dynamics and Leverage Unwinding
Liquidation cascades have become a defining feature of Bitcoin USD’s recent price action. The $2.5 billion in total crypto liquidations represents a significant deleveraging event that typically accelerates downside moves as stop-losses trigger automatically. Bitcoin USD’s high volatility—with an ATR of 3,252.65—means leveraged positions face rapid margin calls when price moves exceed expected ranges.
The Money Flow Index at 47.98 sits near neutral, suggesting neither strong buying nor selling pressure from a volume-weighted perspective. However, the Awesome Oscillator at 2,242.61 shows positive momentum, hinting that selling pressure may be exhausting. If liquidations stabilize and leverage unwinds fully, Bitcoin USD could find a bottom and begin consolidating near current support levels around $75,644 (the day’s low).
What’s Next for Bitcoin USD in February 2026
Bitcoin USD faces a critical juncture as it tests multi-month support levels. The path forward depends on whether the $84,208 Bollinger Band lower level holds or breaks. A break below this level could accelerate selling toward the $75,644 day low and potentially the $74,420.69 year low. Conversely, a bounce from current levels could target the $88,000-$90,000 zone where the 50-day moving average provides resistance.
Macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve communications will likely drive near-term direction. Any signals of policy easing could reignite risk appetite and support Bitcoin USD recovery. Institutional adoption trends, mining profitability improvements, and geopolitical developments will also shape sentiment. Traders should monitor the $78,648-$84,208 range closely, as a sustained break above this zone would suggest a reversal pattern forming.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin USD’s 6.94% decline to $78,648 reflects a confluence of macro headwinds, institutional outflows, and technical breakdown that has pushed the leading cryptocurrency to nine-month lows. The $2.5 billion in liquidations underscores the leverage unwinding occurring across crypto markets, while mining profitability pressures add fundamental weakness. Technical indicators show a strong downtrend in place, with price trading well below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. However, prediction markets now see nearly even odds between further downside and recovery, suggesting capitulation may be near. The monthly forecast of $92,791 and quarterly target of $125,516.64 imply significant recovery potential if support holds and macro sentiment shifts. Traders should watch the $84,208 Bollinger Band lower level and $75,644 day low as critical support zones. While Bitcoin USD faces near-term headwinds, the long-term technical setup and forecast data suggest the current decline may represent an opportunity for patient investors. Monitor Federal Reserve communications and mining profitability trends for catalysts that could trigger a reversal.
FAQs
Bitcoin USD fell due to macroeconomic uncertainty, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and institutional ETF outflows. Over $2.5 billion in crypto liquidations accelerated the decline. Mining profitability hit 14-month lows, adding fundamental pressure. Traditional safe havens like gold surged, pulling capital from riskier assets like Bitcoin.
Monthly forecast targets $92,791 (+18% from current levels). Quarterly forecast reaches $125,516.64 (+59.5%), returning toward October’s peak. Yearly forecast sits at $95,894 (+21.9%). These targets assume stabilization at support levels and renewed institutional interest in the coming weeks.
Key support: $84,208.69 (Bollinger Band lower), $83,600 (Keltner Channel lower), $75,644 (day low). Resistance: $93,209.41 (Bollinger Band upper), $89,813.60 (50-day average). The RSI at 48.91 is neutral, while ADX at 25.89 confirms a strong downtrend remains in place.
Bitcoin USD is neither oversold nor overbought. The RSI at 48.91 sits in neutral territory. However, the MACD shows bearish pressure despite a bullish histogram divergence. Price trading below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages suggests weakness persists despite potential exhaustion signals.
Federal Reserve policy easing signals, improved mining profitability, geopolitical de-escalation, or institutional re-entry could spark recovery. A bounce from $84,208 support toward $88,000-$90,000 would signal reversal. Positive macro catalysts and stabilization of liquidation pressure are key recovery drivers.
Disclaimer:
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This content is for informational purposes only. The Forecast Prediction Model is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market data and sentiment analysis, not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
