BTCUSD Bitcoin Tests $77,391 as -0.97% Daily Decline Signals Capitulation
Bitcoin USD is trading at $77,391.35 as of January 31, 2026, down 0.97% over the past 24 hours. The leading cryptocurrency faces mounting pressure as macroeconomic headwinds and liquidation cascades reshape market dynamics. With a market cap of $1.67 trillion and trading volume at $816 million, Bitcoin’s recent decline reflects broader risk-off sentiment across global financial markets. Technical indicators suggest the market is testing critical support levels while traders reassess price targets ranging from $69,000 to $100,000. Understanding the current technical setup and market structure is essential for tracking Bitcoin’s next major move.
Why is BTCUSD Bitcoin Testing Lower Levels
Bitcoin’s decline reflects a confluence of macroeconomic pressures and technical breakdown. The Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance, combined with uncertainty around Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair, has triggered broad-based selling across risk assets. Bitcoin fell 7.4% on January 30, hitting a nine-month low of $82,134 before recovering slightly. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a massive $817 million net outflow on Thursday, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone seeing $317.81 million in redemptions.
Liquidations spiked to $1.68 billion as traders unwound leveraged positions. The crypto market capitalization declined 6.7% during this period, signaling capitulation-style selling. Traditional safe havens like gold surged past $5,600 per ounce while Bitcoin struggled, highlighting a shift in investor risk appetite. This divergence suggests institutional capital is rotating away from crypto toward established hedges during periods of macro uncertainty.
BTCUSD Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Bitcoin’s technical setup reveals mixed signals with a strong downtrend intact. The RSI stands at 48.91, indicating neutral momentum without clear overbought or oversold conditions. The ADX measures 25.89, confirming a strong downtrend with directional conviction. MACD shows a bearish signal with the histogram at 721.64, suggesting momentum remains negative despite recent stabilization attempts.
Bollinger Bands place Bitcoin between the lower band at $84,208.69 and upper band at $93,209.41, with the current price near the lower range. Support levels cluster around $84,208 (BB lower) and $83,600 (Keltner Channel lower). Resistance sits at $93,209 (BB upper) and $96,610 (KC upper). The 50-day moving average at $89,813 and 200-day average at $104,526 both sit above current price, confirming the downtrend structure. Volume remains elevated at 816 million, suggesting institutional participation in the selloff.
BTCUSD Bitcoin Price Forecast
Bitcoin’s price targets reflect significant uncertainty with traders split between bullish and bearish scenarios. Monthly forecast targets $92,791, representing a 19.9% upside from current levels if buying pressure emerges. Quarterly forecast reaches $125,516.64, implying a 62.2% rally if macro conditions stabilize and Fed policy shifts dovish. Yearly forecast sits at $95,894, suggesting modest 23.9% upside over 12 months.
Longer-term forecasts show three-year target at $120,797.95 (56.1% upside) and five-year target at $145,675.76 (88.2% upside). These projections assume Bitcoin recovers from current capitulation and resumes its historical growth trajectory. However, prediction markets show nearly even odds between a $69,000 dump and $100,000 recovery, reflecting genuine uncertainty about near-term direction. Forecasts may change due to market conditions, regulations, or unexpected events.
Market Sentiment and Trading Activity
Market sentiment has shifted decisively negative as risk-off conditions dominate. Bitcoin ETF outflows totaled $817 million on January 30, marking the largest single-day exodus in recent months. BlackRock’s IBIT led redemptions with $317.81 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC at $168.05 million and Grayscale’s GBTC at $119.44 million. This institutional selling suggests conviction behind the downside move rather than panic liquidations.
Liquidation data reveals $1.68 billion in forced position closures across crypto markets, with Bitcoin accounting for $121 million of that total. Hyperliquid saw significant liquidations in precious metals futures, indicating traders are rotating capital toward traditional hedges. Trading volume remains elevated at 816 million, 23.8% above the 30-day average, confirming active participation. The relative volume indicator at 1.88 shows sustained selling pressure with institutional-grade execution.
Key Support and Resistance Levels for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s technical structure defines clear price zones for the next phase of trading. The immediate support level sits at $84,208.69 (Bollinger Band lower), with secondary support at $83,600.01 (Keltner Channel lower). Breaking below $83,600 could trigger a test of the $82,134 nine-month low established on January 30. The 50-day moving average at $89,813.60 acts as intermediate resistance, followed by the $93,209.41 Bollinger Band upper level.
Above $93,209, the $96,610.62 Keltner Channel upper band represents the next major resistance. The 200-day moving average at $104,526.08 remains a psychological level for longer-term traders. Year-to-date trading range spans from $74,420.69 (low) to $126,296 (high), establishing the broader context. Current price action near the lower Bollinger Band suggests mean reversion potential if selling exhaustion occurs, though the strong ADX reading indicates downtrend momentum remains intact.
What’s Next for Bitcoin USD Price Action
Bitcoin faces a critical juncture where technical support levels and macro catalysts will determine the next directional move. The $84,208 support zone represents the first line of defense against further capitulation. A break below this level could accelerate selling toward $82,134 and potentially $80,500 if liquidation cascades resume. Conversely, stabilization above $84,208 with volume confirmation could signal capitulation completion and set up a relief rally toward $89,813.
Federal Reserve policy remains the primary macro driver, with Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair introducing uncertainty around future rate decisions. Bitcoin miners are struggling with profitability at current levels, with the miner profit/loss sustainability index hitting a 14-month low. Japanese Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet’s $137 million capital raise suggests institutional conviction remains despite near-term weakness. Watch for ETF flow reversals and liquidation data as leading indicators of trend exhaustion.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin USD is navigating a critical inflection point as macroeconomic pressures and technical breakdown converge. The -0.97% daily decline reflects broader capitulation dynamics, with $1.68 billion in liquidations and $817 million in ETF outflows reshaping market structure. Technical analysis shows a strong downtrend (ADX 25.89) with support at $84,208 and resistance at $93,209. Price forecasts range from $92,791 monthly to $145,675 over five years, reflecting genuine uncertainty about recovery timing. Market sentiment remains negative, though elevated volume and institutional participation suggest the selloff may be reaching exhaustion phases. Traders should monitor support level holds, ETF flow reversals, and Fed policy signals as key indicators for the next directional move. The divergence between Bitcoin weakness and gold strength highlights the current risk-off environment, but historical patterns suggest capitulation-style selling often precedes significant recoveries.
FAQs
Bitcoin fell 0.97% due to macroeconomic headwinds, Fed policy uncertainty, and a $1.68 billion liquidation cascade. Risk-off sentiment drove $817 million in spot Bitcoin ETF outflows as traders rotated toward traditional safe havens like gold, which surged past $5,600 per ounce.
Monthly forecast targets $92,791 (19.9% upside), quarterly reaches $125,516.64 (62.2% upside), and yearly sits at $95,894 (23.9% upside). Five-year forecast shows $145,675.76, assuming Bitcoin recovers from current weakness and resumes historical growth patterns.
Immediate support sits at $84,208.69 (Bollinger Band lower) and $83,600.01 (Keltner Channel lower). Secondary support is at $82,134 (nine-month low). The 50-day moving average at $89,813.60 provides intermediate resistance above current price.
Bitcoin’s RSI at 48.91 indicates neutral momentum, neither overbought (>70) nor oversold (<30). The ADX at 25.89 confirms a strong downtrend, suggesting the decline is driven by directional conviction rather than extreme positioning.
Fed policy shifts toward easing, stabilization in macro conditions, or capitulation completion could trigger recovery. Positive ETF flows, miner profitability improvements, and institutional buying at support levels would signal trend reversal potential.
Disclaimer:
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This content is for informational purposes only. The Forecast Prediction Model is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market data and sentiment analysis, not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
