Why did the Canadian dollar strengthen today?

Speculators turned net long CAD for the first time since August 2023, according to CFTC positioning. That sentiment shift, combined with resilient Canadian labour data and firmer oil, supported demand. Broad USD softness also helped. Together, these factors pulled USD/CAD toward 1.3500, with 1.3420 in view if momentum persists.

Is USD/CAD likely to break 1.3500 soon?

A daily close below 1.3500 would signal stronger downside momentum toward 1.3420. Without that confirmation, price can chop or rebound. We watch closing levels, lower highs and lows, and momentum gauges. US yields and upcoming Canadian data may tip the balance for the USD/CAD pair near term.

How do oil prices affect the Canadian dollar?

Canada is a major energy exporter, so firmer oil often improves terms of trade and supports CAD. The link is not perfect and can fade at times, but sustained oil gains usually help the currency by boosting export revenues and business cash flows, which can attract capital into Canada.

What does CFTC positioning tell us about CAD trend risk?

CFTC positioning tracks how speculators are aligned. A new net‑long stance can fuel trend follow‑through if data supports it, but it also raises squeeze risk if sentiment reverses. We pair positioning with price action to gauge whether the Canadian dollar rally is broadening or becoming stretched.

How could the Bank of Canada impact USD/CAD next?

If the Bank of Canada signals steady policy with improving inflation progress, CAD may stay supported. A more cautious tone on growth or stickier inflation could shift rate expectations and move USD/CAD. Watch CPI, retail sales, and policy remarks for clues on timing and direction of any future changes.

Global Market Insights

Canadian Dollar February 10: Net‑Long Shift Pushes USD/CAD to 1.35

ByDanny Kontos February 11, 2026February 11, 2026

The Canadian dollar firmed on February 10 after CFTC data showed speculators turned net long CAD for the first time since August 2023. The USD/CAD pair is testing 1.3500, and a decisive break points to 1.3420 next. Resilient Canadian labour data and firmer oil add support, while broad USD softness helps near term. We explain what the shift means, the key trading levels to watch, and how the Bank of Canada could shape the path from here.