What is the key risk to oil from the Strait of Hormuz now?

Live-fire drills near a busy waterway raise the odds of missteps and temporary shipping slowdowns. Even without damage, insurers can lift premiums and vessels may reroute, adding costs. The result is a short-term price premium for crude and fuels until risks ease.

How could this affect Canadian gasoline prices?

A higher crude and refined product premium can pass through to wholesale rack prices, then retail in CAD. The timing varies by province and inventory levels. If tensions calm fast, the impact can fade. A longer disruption would pressure inflation and household budgets.

What should TSX investors watch this week?

Track official notices on naval activity, verified media updates, and refinery margins. Integrated producers, pipelines, and service firms can move differently. Strong balance sheets and long-life reserves matter. Any progress on US-Iran talks could trim risk premia and narrow daily price swings.

Does the IRGC EU designation change compliance for Canadians?

It can. Companies should review sanctions lists, banking policies, shipping rules, and insurance clauses. The IRGC EU designation debate and related measures may alter counterparty risk. Keep documentation current and consult counsel before engaging in transactions that touch restricted entities or regions.

Law and Government

February 01: Iran-EU Terror Spat Raises Strait of Hormuz Oil Risk

ByHuzaifa Zahoor February 2, 2026February 2, 2026

Iran designates EU armies ter· has thrust Strait of Hormuz oil flows into focus for Canadian investors. Tehran labeled EU militaries as terrorist groups after the EU targeted the IRGC, and it plans live-fire drills in the waterway that carries about a fifth of global oil trade. The escalation lifts short-term risk premia for crude and shipping. We explain the immediate market read, potential de-escalation paths, and how Canadians can position for price swings without overreacting to headlines.