Why does Merkel’s attendance at the CDU congress matter for markets?

It is a clear signal test. Merkel’s first in-person CDU appearance since leaving office could amplify a centrist message ahead of key 2026 state votes. A cohesive stage lowers perceived Germany political risk, which can support equities, steady Bund yields, and help the euro. If the event highlights divisions or vague policy, investors may price in more volatility and wider domestic credit spreads.

What should we watch for in Friedrich Merz leadership signals?

Focus on the scale of support he receives and any concrete references to fiscal rules, permitting speeds, and cost relief for businesses. Strong backing for Friedrich Merz leadership with pro-competitiveness cues is mildly bullish for German cyclicals. A disciplined fiscal stance tends to support Bunds. Mixed messages or internal disputes could limit risk appetite and keep markets range-bound into the next polling cycle.

How does the AfD polling surge affect investor positioning?

Sustained AfD gains can raise uncertainty and nudge risk premia higher, pressuring domestic cyclicals and widening select credit spreads. If the CDU reclaims centrist momentum, that pressure may ease. We suggest watching poll trends, candidate quality, and turnout signals. Keep positions flexible, use modest hedges around event days, and scale exposure only after clarity on coalition paths and policy tone emerges.

What are practical steps to prepare before February 20?

Outline scenarios, set stops, and define add-on levels. Keep some cash for post-event entries. Track headlines in real time and focus on unity language, fiscal clarity, and investment themes. If Angela Merkel CDU party congr produces a cohesive signal, consider adding to quality cyclicals. If messages conflict, prioritize balance sheets, favor defensives, and reassess after initial volatility fades.

Law and Government

February 10: Merkel to Attend CDU Congress, Unity Signal Before Elections

ByDanny Kontos February 10, 2026February 10, 2026

Angela Merkel CDU party congr on February 20 adds a clear signal to investors. Her first in-person CDU event since leaving office, as an honorary guest, comes before key 2026 state votes. Markets will watch for unity cues, Friedrich Merz leadership strength, and policy tone. A steadier center-right message could lower Germany political risk, narrow risk premia, and support equities. A split stage could do the opposite. We outline what to track and how to position ahead of the congress.