Who will actually receive tariff refunds if duties are voided?

Refunds typically go to the importer of record that paid the duty, often a US subsidiary or distributor. Contract terms decide if savings are shared with suppliers or customers. German exporters can still benefit through stronger orders, better pricing, and faster restocking as US partners recoup cash and redeploy working capital.

How fast could refunds from Trump tariffs reach companies?

Timing depends on agency guidance and documentation quality. Early filers with clean records could see initial payments within months, while complex claims may take longer. We expect phased processing, with cash flows building over time rather than one lump sum. Plan inventory, pricing, and hedging for a staggered schedule.

What does this mean for inflation in Germany and the EU?

Direct effects are small, since duties were US policy. Indirectly, lower US import costs can ease global goods prices and freight, trimming input costs for EU manufacturers. If the dollar strengthens on US growth, imported components get pricier in euros, which can dilute some benefits at the margin.

Could the US trade deficit shrink meaningfully after refunds?

Refunds reduce past costs but do not change history. If duties vanish, future imports may rise as prices drop, while cheaper inputs can lift US output and exports. The net effect on the US trade deficit will hinge on demand, currency moves, and supply capacity rather than refunds alone.

Global Market Insights

February 20: US Supreme Court Voids Trump Tariffs, $175B Refund Risk

ByDanny Kontos February 20, 2026February 20, 2026

German media report the US Supreme Court ruling voided most Trump tariffs on 20 February, creating a potential $175 billion pool of tariff refunds. The US trade deficit narrowed only slightly to about $901.5 billion last year. We explain how tariff refunds could work, why prices may ease, and where demand could rise. For German investors, we map sector winners, currency watchpoints, and portfolio ideas if Trump tariffs are rolled back or repaid. Our focus is practical steps with clear risks and catalysts to monitor.