Why did USD/JPY fall into the 154s today?

US Q4 GDP slowed to 1.4%, which dented the dollar’s growth appeal, while the PCE price index stayed firm, keeping inflation concerns alive. That mix reduced confidence in quick Fed cuts. A US Supreme Court ruling rejecting Trump-era tariffs added to dollar softness, helping the yen gain and pulling USD/JPY into the 154s.

How do US Q4 GDP and the PCE price index affect USD/JPY?

US Q4 GDP signals growth momentum, while the PCE price index guides inflation and Fed policy. Weaker growth with firm inflation complicates rate-cut timing, often flattening or lifting US yields unevenly. That uncertainty can weigh on the dollar, support the yen, and increase USD/JPY volatility around data releases.

What does the Supreme Court tariff ruling mean for the dollar?

Rejecting Trump-era tariffs reduces expectations for aggressive unilateral trade actions. It can soften the dollar’s policy premium and modestly support risk sentiment outside the US. For FX, it joined growth and inflation signals in pressuring the greenback, contributing to a pullback in USD/JPY as traders pared long-dollar exposure.

What key levels should Japan traders watch now?

Initial support is near 154.00, then 153.50. Resistance sits around 155.00 and 155.50. Reactions to late-February US PCE and moves in US 2‑year and 10‑year yields may decide breaks. Plan entries near levels, use tight risk limits, and be alert for volatility around London fix and the US cash open.

Global Market Insights

February 21: USD/JPY Slides as US Q4 GDP Miss, Firm PCE Rattle Dollar

ByDanny Kontos February 21, 2026February 21, 2026

USD/JPY fell into the 154s on February 21 as a softer 1.4% US Q4 GDP print clashed with a firm PCE price index. The mixed signals rattled the dollar and lifted the yen, while a US Supreme Court tariff ruling further pressured broad dollar sentiment. For Japan investors, the move highlights how growth and inflation tensions, plus legal headlines, can shift rate expectations quickly. We explain what drove USD/JPY, the policy backdrop, key levels, and how to position into upcoming data.