Why do US-Iran tensions matter for Australia’s fuel prices?

Australia imports most of its refined fuel, so global disruptions can lift crude and product prices that set local costs. If Middle East risk raises shipping and insurance, landed prices in AUD can rise even without physical shortages. Retail pass-through varies with wholesale levels, taxes, and discount cycles.

What indicators should I monitor day-to-day?

Track official statements from the White House, Israeli leadership, and Iran. Watch Brent time spreads, tanker traffic near Hormuz, war-risk insurance notices, and OPEC+ guidance. For Australia, monitor wholesale fuel benchmarks, the AUD, and ASX energy and airline moves to see how global shocks filter locally.

How can a retail investor hedge this risk?

Use diversified funds with energy exposure, consider staggered buys in oil-sensitive assets, and offset with positions that benefit from lower crude, such as airlines, when conditions improve. Keep cash buffers, set stop-losses, and avoid leverage. For currency risk, modest USD exposure can cushion AUD weakness during stress.

What could quickly change the outlook?

A limited strike, a ceasefire framework, or a new sanctions package can reprice oil and shipping within hours. A shift in Benjamin Netanyahu’s tone, verified White House policy, or evidence of reduced militia activity would lower risk premia. Conversely, attacks on energy infrastructure can extend and intensify the shock.

Law and Government

February 6: Benjamin Netanyahu, US-Iran Decision Puts Oil on Watch

ByDanny Kontos February 5, 2026February 5, 2026

Benjamin Netanyahu faces mounting criticism at home as Washington nears a pivotal Iran decision. For Australian investors, US-Iran tensions keep Middle East risk high and oil prices sensitive to headlines. Analysts warn Israel’s leverage may be slipping, raising odds of a strike or late-stage talks. Either turn could quickly reprice crude, shipping, insurance and defense exposure. We outline what to watch, how it may impact the ASX and the AUD, and practical steps to protect portfolios in Australia.