Fresnillo to Acquire Probe Gold in C$780 Million Cash Deal

On October 31, 2025, Fresnillo plc, one of the world’s top silver and gold producers, made a bold move. The company announced its plan to buy Probe Gold Inc. in an all-cash deal worth C$780 million. This marks Fresnillo’s first major step into Canada’s gold mining sector. The deal gives Fresnillo access to Probe Gold’s promising Novador Project in Quebec, a region rich in untapped gold resources.

This acquisition isn’t just about buying another company; it’s about growth and diversification. Fresnillo, which has long focused on its Mexican mines, is now expanding into a stable and mining-friendly market. 

For Probe Gold, the offer brings strong financial backing and a chance to turn exploration into real production. The move also highlights a growing trend in the global mining industry: major players are investing in exploration firms to secure future gold supply.

Fresnillo & Probe Gold Inc.: Parties to the Transaction

Fresnillo plc is a London-listed miner best known for silver and gold operations in Mexico. The company has grown through disciplined projects and selective deals. Probe Gold Inc. is a Toronto-listed explorer focused on the Val-d’Or region of Quebec.

Probe developed the Novador district-scale land package and advanced near-surface deposits there. The deal pairs Fresnillo’s development and capital strengths with Probe’s Canadian asset base and local teams.

Key Deal Terms Between Fresnillo & Probe

On October 31, 2025, Fresnillo agreed to buy 100% of Probe Gold for C$3.65 per share in cash, valuing the transaction at about C$780 million (roughly US$560 million). The Board of Probe unanimously recommended the offer. The cash price represented a material premium to Probe’s trading levels on October 30, 2025. 

The acquisition is structured as a statutory plan of arrangement under Ontario law and requires shareholder and court approval. Shareholder votes and customary closing conditions mean the transaction is not final until regulatory and court steps are complete.

Strategic Rationale

Fresnillo enters Canada for the first time with this acquisition. The company gains a major foothold in Quebec’s Val-d’Or mining camp. Novador is a large land package near existing infrastructure. The assets give Fresnillo resource scale and optionality.

Novador’s advanced targets and pipeline can shorten the timeline from discovery to development compared with greenfield projects. Fresnillo also diversifies operational risk by adding a stable, mining-friendly jurisdiction outside Mexico. This move aligns with a strategy of buying assets with clear development pathways rather than speculative early exploration.

Probe: Asset and Resource Snapshot

Probe’s Novador project is a district-scale package of several deposits. Company filings and the Novador website describe a large contiguous land holding and multiple mineralized zones. Public summaries indicate a significant gold endowment in measured, indicated, and inferred categories across the project portfolio. 

Analysts point to potential production profiles and multi-year mine life at certain scope levels, although detailed feasibility work is still needed to confirm those outputs. These resource figures made Probe an attractive target for a miner with capital and project execution capability.

Implications for Stakeholders

Probe shareholders receive immediate liquidity and a cash premium. The deal removes execution risk for shareholders who prefer realized value over long exploration timelines. Fresnillo increases its resource base and gains optional future production. Quebec stands to see fresh investment and jobs tied to project advancement. 

Local communities and Indigenous stakeholders will become central to any development plan. Regulators will review environmental and social commitments as part of permitting and project approvals. Market watchers also see this transaction as evidence of consolidation in the gold sector as majors and large mid-tier firms buy district-scale assets to secure future supply.

Financial and Market Context

The acquisition comes amid stronger gold price momentum in 2025. That backdrop increases the appeal of adding gold ounces and development options. Fresnillo’s balance sheet and cash generation from existing mines allowed an all-cash bid without altering the stated dividend policy. 

Some analysts noted the premium looks reasonable versus the upside in Novador, especially if key development milestones are met. Market reaction in early trading reflected the deal’s scale relative to Probe’s market capitalization and the strategic fit for Fresnillo’s growth pipeline.

Risks and Considerations

Acquisition risk includes integration into Fresnillo’s corporate structure and managing projects in a new jurisdiction. Translating resource estimates into a permitted, financed mine requires substantial technical and social work. Permitting, First Nations consultations, and environmental review in Quebec can be time-consuming. 

Commodity price swings could change project economics. Currency differences between Canadian and Mexican operations add an extra layer of financial complexity. Finally, the arrangement remains subject to shareholder approvals, potential competing offers, and court confirmation. Investors should watch the management information circular due in mid-November 2025 for more details.

Timing and Next Steps of Fresnillo & Probe

Probe expects to mail a management information circular to shareholders in mid-November 2025. A special shareholder meeting is anticipated in January 2026 to vote on the plan of arrangement. Closing will follow regulatory clearance and court approval if shareholders approve the transaction. 

After close, Probe will be delisted from public markets and its projects will move under Fresnillo’s project development teams. The market will then monitor feasibility study results, permitting milestones, and any updates on project economics.

Fresnillo & Probe Deal: What to Watch Now?

Look for the formal management circular and any competing bids. Track updates on Novador’s technical studies and Fresnillo’s public commentary about capital allocation and project sequencing. Stakeholder engagement in Quebec will be important to gauge timeline risk. Analysts using an AI stock research analysis tool may model different price and production scenarios. That modeling will shape estimates of the deal’s long-term value relative to the premium paid.

Wrap Up

The deal gives Fresnillo rapid scale in a premier Canadian gold camp. It shifts Probe from an exploration story to an asset inside a producer’s portfolio. The offer closes a chapter for Probe shareholders and opens a new one for Fresnillo as it tests growth in North America.

Success will depend on sound project delivery, strong stakeholder relations, and steady progress through studies and permits. The next six to twelve months will provide the first real signals of whether the acquisition converts potential into production and value. 

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