GEO Stock Today: January 19 Minnesota ICE Surge Stokes Contract Bets
GEO stock today is in focus as a Minnesota ICE surge raises bets on higher detention and monitoring demand. GEO last traded at $17.59 (+0.57%), with a 52-week range of $14.27 to $36.46. Operations tied to fraud and immigration enforcement in Minneapolis could lift utilization, but protests and political pushback add headline and funding risk. We break down how this backdrop may affect price action, near-term contract revenue, and what investors should track into the February 17, 2026 earnings report.
Minnesota ICE Surge: Demand Upside vs. Policy Risk
A DHS/ICE push in Minneapolis has drawn congressional attention and on-the-ground visits, signaling stepped-up enforcement that can lift facility beds and electronic monitoring draws for GEO. Higher activity can raise per-diem revenue and occupancy mix, if sustained. Early signals are visible as Democrats visited to witness the incursion source.
Protests and political pressure are intensifying, with Rep. Ilhan Omar citing confusion from the federal probe into Minnesota welfare fraud source. Funding amendments, detention caps, or contract reviews could follow. That mix supports near-term utilization but raises policy risk for private prison stocks, keeping volatility elevated for GEO stock today.
Price Action and Technical Picture
GEO stock today trades at $17.59 (+0.57%), within a $17.25–$17.66 intraday range. Volume is 1,118,925 vs. 1,879,156 average. Price sits above the 50-day average ($16.16) but below the 200-day ($21.96). YTD is +10.42%, while 1-year is -48.26%. Market cap stands at $2.45 billion. Near-term, a close above $17.66 would strengthen upside momentum.
RSI is 48.32 (neutral) and ADX is 12.26 (no trend). MACD (-0.04) trails its signal (0.01). ATR is 0.60. Bollinger bands sit at 15.82–17.08, Keltner channels at 15.10–17.52. Price tested the upper Keltner and is near Bollinger resistance. MFI at 29.45 hints at early accumulation if buyers hold recent gains.
Earnings, Valuation, and Balance Sheet
Earnings are due February 17, 2026. EPS is $1.69, implying a 10.41x P/E. Revenue per share is $18.30 and net margin is 9.41%. Analyst snapshot shows 2 Buys, 0 Holds/Sells (consensus 4.00). Our stock grade reads B+ (Suggestion: BUY). For GEO stock today, policy-sensitive guidance on utilization, rates, and monitoring enrollments will matter more than one-off volume spikes.
Debt-to-equity is 1.07 with interest coverage at 1.89 and net debt/EBITDA at 2.54. Current ratio is 1.62. Free cash flow yield is 1.08% (price/FCF ~93x), flagging sensitivity to cash generation. EV/EBITDA is 6.83. If rates rise or funding shifts, refinancing and capex timing become key watchpoints for GEO stock today.
Peer Watch: CoreCivic and Sector Read-Through
Private prison stocks often trade together on enforcement headlines. If activity and funding expand, GEO and CXW could see higher utilization and monitoring revenue. The flip side is synchronized drawdowns if Congress imposes caps or contract limits. Beta to policy news remains high, keeping position sizing and stop discipline critical for GEO stock today.
Investors should track DHS/ICE operational tempo, appropriations signals, Minneapolis enforcement outcomes, and contract renewals. Watch any changes to per-diem rates, detention caps, or electronic monitoring enrollments. Into earnings, listen for occupancy updates, segment mix, capex cadence, and cash flow targets. Clear guidance could reset risk-reward for GEO stock today.
Final Thoughts
Here is our practical read-through for U.S. investors. A Minnesota enforcement surge can lift near-term utilization for GEO, but protests and political pressure keep policy risk high. For trading, watch $17.66 (intraday high) and the $17.52 Keltner upper band as near-term resistance. A firm close above both improves odds of a push toward the $17.08–$17.66 band cluster. For investing, focus on the February 17 call: occupancy trends, electronic monitoring enrollments, contract renewals, and cash flow plans. Balance attractive valuation (10.41x P/E, EV/EBITDA 6.83) against leverage and low FCF yield. Keep sizing modest until funding visibility improves, and use updates from DHS and Congress to refine risk. This is not financial advice; do your own research.
FAQs
Why is GEO stock today moving on Minnesota news?
Investors see a potential demand uptick from increased ICE activity in Minneapolis, which can lift bed utilization and electronic monitoring enrollments. At the same time, protests and political attention raise headline and funding risks. The push-pull between utilization upside and policy uncertainty is driving short-term sentiment and volatility.
What technical levels matter for GEO right now?
Key levels include $17.66 (intraday high) and the Keltner upper band near $17.52. Price is above the 50-day average ($16.16) but below the 200-day ($21.96). RSI is neutral at 48.32. A decisive close above $17.66 could invite momentum buying; losing $17.25 would weaken the setup.
How do valuation and balance sheet affect GEO stock today?
GEO trades at 10.41x earnings and 6.83x EV/EBITDA, which looks reasonable, but leverage (debt-to-equity 1.07) and modest interest coverage (1.89) limit flexibility. Free cash flow yield is 1.08%, so cash generation needs to improve. Policy shifts that hurt occupancy or rates could pressure both valuation and debt service.
What should investors watch into the February 17 earnings?
Focus on occupancy, electronic monitoring enrollments, per-diem pricing, and contract renewals. Look for guidance on cash flow, capex, and debt costs. Any updates linked to the Minnesota enforcement backdrop, DHS funding signals, or potential detention caps will likely shape the near-term outlook for GEO stock today.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
