Why are TTF prices low even as Germany’s storage is near 24%?

Europe has ample LNG arrivals, steady Norwegian flows, mild weather, and lower industrial demand. These factors keep daily balances comfortable, so TTF gas prices stay soft even with low caverns. The risk shifts to spring and summer when refilling meets policy buying and can tighten liquidity.

How could a strategic gas reserve affect investors?

A strategic gas reserve can buy earlier and in larger clips than private players. That can widen summer to winter spreads, lift volatility, and change tender timing. Clear, transparent rules help. Poor design could crowd out hedging and push costs higher during peak injection months.

What indicators best track refill risk?

Focus on Germany’s storage, regasification utilisation, weekly imports, and the TTF summer to winter spread. Check weather forecasts, maintenance notices, and LNG shipping queues. Rising spreads and falling inventories together often signal tighter procurement ahead and a higher chance of sharper price moves into summer.

Does low storage mean a supply crunch is likely now?

Near term, no. Imports and German LNG supply keep the system balanced, and weather is mild. The bigger risk comes during injections when storage levels guide how much gas must be bought. That is when policy and market timing will matter most.

Global Market Insights

Germany Gas Storage at Decade Low; Reserve Debate — February 18

ByHuzaifa Zahoor February 19, 2026February 19, 2026

Germany gas storage levels have slipped to about 24%, the lowest in roughly a decade, even as TTF gas prices sit near a five week low. Ample LNG cargoes and diversified pipeline flows keep supply steady for now. The picture can change fast once injection season starts. We see three key drivers: summer refill demand, policy choices on a strategic gas reserve, and industrial gas needs. Together, they could tighten procurement and increase volatility in Q2 to Q3, even if winter risks look contained today.