Why does UBS think gold can hit $5,000?

UBS cites a lasting geopolitical risk premium, steady central bank buying, and stable or lower real yields as key supports. After breaking $4,500, momentum and safe-haven flows can carry prices higher into quarter-end. If tensions ease, the bank still expects elevated levels relative to recent years.

What risks could cap gold in 2026?

A rise in real yields, faster global growth, or easing geopolitical tensions could cap gains. A stronger euro would also reduce returns for unhedged German investors. Heavier mine supply or large ETF outflows could add pressure, pushing prices toward the UBS year-end 2026 guide near $4,800.

How should German investors size a gold position?

Many diversified portfolios use 5% to 10% in gold, adjusted for goals and risk tolerance. Build positions gradually, add on weakness, and rebalance to targets. Compare ETC fees, spreads, and custody, or consider physical coins with trusted storage. Align sizing with your broader income and bond exposure.

Is euro hedging necessary for gold exposure?

It depends on your view of EUR/USD and risk budget. Unhedged gold can benefit if the euro weakens against the dollar. Hedged products reduce currency swings but add cost. Match the approach to your time horizon and rebalance rules, and monitor currency’s impact on total returns.

Global Market Insights

Gold Today, January 8: UBS Sees $5,000 as Geopolitical Risk Premium Grows

ByHuzaifa Zahoor January 9, 2026January 9, 2026

Gold price forecast is front and center for German investors today after UBS said gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of this quarter. Spot prices recently broke above $4,500, backed by a persistent geopolitical risk premium and firm safe haven demand. UBS also guides for prices to ease toward $4,800 by year-end 2026. We explain what this means for portfolios in Germany, the drivers that matter most, and how to position as the quarter unfolds.