What changed for markets after the New START expiration?

Both sides say they will keep observing deployed warhead and launcher limits, but verification looks weaker. That reduces near-term escalation odds while raising uncertainty about compliance. Markets often respond with higher option premiums, sector rotations toward defense and utilities, and occasional liquidity pockets on headline days.

How could adding China in arms talks affect stocks?

Bringing China into negotiations likely extends timelines and complicates verification terms. That keeps a lingering policy overhang on US Russia arms control. Defense and surveillance suppliers may see sentiment lift on budget hopes, while broad markets could face intermittent risk-off waves when talks stall or new demands emerge.

Which indicators show if ^GSPC can absorb geopolitical shocks?

Watch RSI 57.52, MACD above its signal, and ADX 12.18 for trend strength. ATR 59.05 and Bollinger levels near 6,980 and 6,752 frame expected ranges. Volume at 6.70 billion versus a 5.07 billion average helps confirm moves when headlines hit.

What should US investors track this week on arms control?

Monitor official statements, military exercise notices, and sanctions chatter. Track crude moves for supply risk, option skew for stress, and Treasury demand for haven bids. Any verification setback or progress can shift the nuclear treaty russia risk premium and drive fast rotations across sectors.

Law and Government

^GSPC Today: February 05 — New START Lapse, US-Russia ‘Observe’ Pact

ByDanny Kontos February 6, 2026February 6, 2026

On February 05, the nuclear treaty russia landscape shifted as New START expired, yet Washington and Moscow said they will keep observing its limits for now. Verification looks thinner, and talks that try to include China could drag. Investors are pricing a higher risk premium across defense, energy, and safe-haven assets. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) trades near record territory, but headline risk and reduced transparency can spark fast rotations. We break down what this means for portfolios, key technical levels, and events to watch this week.