Why are searches for “where my refund” spiking, and does it matter for markets?

The spike shows households checking on cash that soon hits bank accounts. When refunds arrive, discretionary spending often lifts, supporting retailers, travel, restaurants, and card networks. Faster deposits can front‑load demand into late Q1, improving sales comps. Slower refunds can delay that boost, which matters for near‑term S&P 500 sentiment.

How could 2026 tax deductions change my refund?

New or expanded 2026 tax deductions could raise average refunds by roughly $1,000, according to reporting this season. The actual impact depends on income, filing status, credits, and state taxes. Keep records, verify eligibility, and consider a tax professional to optimize deductions and avoid errors that could delay a refund.

When do refunds usually arrive, and how can I check IRS refund status?

Most error‑free e‑filed returns with direct deposit arrive in about three weeks. Paper returns or flagged items take longer. Check IRS refund status with the agency’s online tool and update bank details if needed. Filing early, choosing direct deposit, and avoiding mistakes help speed processing and reduce refund uncertainty.

Which S&P 500 groups benefit most from larger refunds?

Consumer discretionary and payments are the usual winners. Refund cash often boosts apparel, electronics, home goods, dining, and travel. Card networks benefit from higher transaction volumes. Retailers with clear promos and strong e‑commerce can capture share quickly, while value chains may gain if price sensitivity rises as refunds fade.

What is the SALT cap 2026, and why should investors care?

SALT cap 2026 refers to potential changes to the $10,000 state and local tax deduction cap after 2025. Policy outcomes can shift after‑tax income, especially in high‑tax states, influencing regional spending. Investors should monitor debates, since deduction changes can alter consumer demand and company guidance next year.

Global Market Insights

^GSPC Today, February 21: Bigger 2026 Tax Refunds May Lift Q1 Spending

ByHuzaifa Zahoor February 21, 2026February 21, 2026

Search interest for “where my refund” is surging today, up about 75% as filing ramps up. That spike signals fresh cash hitting households, a near‑term boost for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) via retail and payments. Fortune reports average refunds could be roughly $1,000 higher thanks to 2026 tax deductions, which can lift discretionary spend. We also see more engagement with free filing and organization tips, which can speed submissions and refunds. Investors tracking “where my refund” should pair consumer data with index technicals to time entries and manage risk in Q1.