How does the state of the union address affect Australian investors holding US equities?

It can shift sentiment on taxes, trade, and growth, which moves discount rates and earnings expectations. That can affect the S&P 500 and the AUD, impacting unhedged returns. When claims on inflation or jobs are disputed, markets lean on upcoming CPI, payrolls, and court decisions. In the meantime, maintain diversification, consider a partial currency hedge, and favour firms with pricing power and strong balance sheets.

What do today’s technicals for the S&P 500 suggest after the state of the union address?

The index trades near 6,890 with RSI at 54.6 and ADX at 14.9, showing balanced momentum and no dominant trend. MACD histogram is modestly positive. Price sits between Bollinger bands with ATR around 79 points, implying larger daily ranges. With policy and legal noise elevated, use staggered entries, respect stops, and size positions for volatility rather than conviction alone.

Why do fact-checks and court rulings on tariffs matter for portfolio strategy?

They shape expected cash flows, costs, and discount rates. If tariff claims are overstated or struck down by courts, projected revenues and margins reset. That can change sector leadership and currency moves. While the headline cycle can be loud, only official data and binding rulings change fundamentals. Keep exposure flexible, tilt toward quality, and add cyclicals once rules and data confirm the outlook.

Should Australians hedge currency after the state of the union address?

Consider your spending currency, horizon, and risk tolerance. Tariff threats and disputed growth claims can lift the USD, benefiting unhedged AUD investors, but reversals can cut gains. A blended approach often works: keep a core hedged sleeve to stabilise volatility and an unhedged sleeve to capture dollar moves. Reassess after key CPI, payrolls, and court updates on trade policy.

Law and Government

^GSPC Today, February 26: SOTU Fact-Checks Flag Tariff, Growth Risks

ByHuzaifa Zahoor February 26, 2026February 26, 2026

Fact-checks of Trump’s state of the union address put tariff, inflation, and jobs claims under a bright light, raising market policy risk for Australian investors. With the S&P 500 (^GSPC) near 6,890, legal pushback on tariffs and disputed growth claims can widen risk premia tied to taxes and trade. For Australians with US exposure through super funds and ETFs, today’s speech fallout matters for hedging choices, sector tilts, and timing. We outline what changed, how price signals look, and practical next moves.