Why do US-Iran nuclear talks matter for markets now?

They lower the odds of a wider conflict, which trims the oil risk premium and reduces volatility. That supports global equities, including Japan, by easing input costs and improving earnings visibility. Clear diplomatic timelines also reduce headline risk, so traders can focus more on fundamentals and less on sudden geopolitical price shocks.

How could this affect Japan’s equity sectors?

If the oil risk premium falls, airlines, shippers, chemicals, and land transport benefit from cheaper fuel and steadier demand. Utilities can also improve. Refiners and upstream energy may lag if spreads narrow. We would balance cyclical exposure with defensives and keep simple oil hedges in place in case diplomacy stalls.

What S&P 500 levels are important after the de-escalation signal?

We are watching 6,896 as a pivot, 6,799 as lower support, 6,993, and the 7,002 year high as resistance. RSI near 50 and ADX around 14 indicate a range. A sustained push above 6,993 to 7,002 on firm breadth would improve momentum and confirm risk appetite.

Does this change the yen or inflation outlook for Japan?

Lower oil prices can slow CPI and may support the yen by shrinking the import bill. That helps consumers and fuel-sensitive sectors, though a stronger yen can weigh on exporters. We expect the Bank of Japan to watch energy pass-through closely while markets track diplomatic progress for its impact on fuel costs.

Law and Government

^GSPC Today, February 28: US-Iran Talks Progress Lowers War Risk

ByDanny Kontos February 28, 2026February 28, 2026

US-Iran nuclear talks are showing clear progress, lowering immediate war risk and lifting sentiment in stock market today. Oman’s foreign minister reported significant steps forward, with working-level talks set for March 2 in Austria. That points to a smaller oil risk premium and calmer trading. For Japan investors, a softer energy shock can support airlines, shippers, and chemicals. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) also benefits as energy-sensitive earnings steadies and volatility cools, while we track key technical levels for confirmation.