^GSPC Today: January 15 – Softer Core CPI Boosts June Cut Odds
Forex Factory users woke to softer US core CPI, up 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y in December, lifting Fed rate cut odds for June. That backdrop has pressured US yields and supported risk appetite, a positive read-through for S&P 500 today and Asia. For Singapore investors, the mix of cooler inflation and easier financial conditions guides USD/SGD, SGS yields, and US equity exposure. We map the key takeaways, levels, and next steps for portfolios in SG.
What Softer US Core CPI Means for Markets
US core CPI rose 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y in December, undershooting forecasts and signaling easing pressure on prices. Rates markets now largely price the first Fed cut by June, pulling longer yields lower and supporting equities. This is a clean signal Forex Factory traders track on the calendar. See coverage from Bloomberg for the details source.
When Fed rate cut odds rise, financing conditions usually loosen, boosting global risk assets and lifting tech-heavy indices. For Singapore, that can aid US exposure while tempering USD strength versus SGD. Lower US yields also reduce the UST-SGS spread, a tailwind for local duration. The Straits Times notes how softer inflation reinforced June expectations source. Forex Factory calendars will keep this front and center.
S&P 500 Today: Levels, Trend, and Signals
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) recently printed 6926.59, down 0.53% on the day, with a 1-year gain of 18.58% and YTD up 1.02%. Intraday range ran 6885.74 to 6941.30, with a year high at 6986.33. The 50-day average sits at 6822.77, above the 200-day at 6335.88, keeping the uptrend intact. Forex Factory traders will watch if price can sustain above the middle Bollinger band.
Momentum remains constructive: RSI 57.5, positive MACD histogram, and Stochastic %K at 86.97. ADX near 12 signals a range rather than a strong trend, so breakouts need confirmation. ATR at 59.05 points to moderate daily swings. Bollinger upper band at 6980 suggests resistance near record territory. Forex Factory participants may look for pullbacks toward 6866-6870 for better risk-reward.
FX and Rates: USD/SGD, Treasuries, and MAS
Softer US core CPI usually leans bearish USD as yields slip, narrowing the USD/SGD interest differential. For SG portfolios, that can reduce FX drag on unhedged US assets. MAS focuses on the S$NEER rather than rates, so the trade-weighted SGD can firm if global risk stabilizes. Forex Factory calendars help track data clusters that influence USD/SGD, including inflation, jobs, and Fed speakers.
Lower US yields ease global financial conditions and may pull SGS yields lower, improving mark-to-market on longer duration. That supports SGD investment-grade credit and REIT refinancing costs. Watch the UST 2-year and 10-year as guideposts for equity multiples and SGD curve moves. Forex Factory users should align duration with risk tolerance, keeping dry powder for spread widening episodes.
How to Position: Portfolio Moves and Risks
With S&P 500 today near highs, we prefer staged entries and focus on quality earnings, cash flow, and AI-linked productivity themes. Consider partial USD/SGD hedges to manage currency noise. A rules-based plan can add on dips toward the 50-day average. Forex Factory event reminders help avoid buying right into volatile data hours.
The macro path hinges on inflation, labor prints, and Fed guidance. Earnings season can shift sector leadership, especially in tech, semis, and financials. Keep watchlists ready, size positions modestly around data drops, and reassess after each print. Forex Factory threads often flag surprise revisions or guidance changes that move futures before Asia opens.
Final Thoughts
Softer US core CPI at 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y has boosted confidence in a June Fed rate cut, pressuring yields and supporting risk assets. For Singapore investors, the mix points to firmer equity sentiment, a steadier USD/SGD, and room for duration to work. For S&P 500 exposure, we favor measured adds on pullbacks, close attention to the 50-day trend, and selective hedging. On FX and rates, track front-end Treasury moves and the S$NEER slope for confirmation. Use Forex Factory calendars to time entries around data windows, stay nimble during earnings, and keep risk budgets disciplined.
FAQs
Why does softer US core CPI help stocks?
Lower inflation reduces pressure on the Fed to keep rates high. When markets price earlier or larger cuts, bond yields tend to fall, lifting equity valuations. It also supports risk appetite and can improve financing conditions, which helps growth sectors and indices like the S&P 500.
What S&P 500 levels are key right now?
Watch 6866-6870 near the 20-day and Keltner midlines as first support, with the 50-day around 6823 as secondary. Resistance sits near the upper Bollinger band around 6980 and the year high at 6986. A clean close above that range would signal momentum continuation.
How could this affect USD/SGD for Singapore investors?
Softer US inflation often pulls US yields down, trimming the USD’s yield edge. That can ease USD/SGD, reducing FX drag on US equity holdings. However, MAS manages the S$NEER, so moves may be gradual. Consider partial hedges around key data prints to smooth currency swings.
How do Forex Factory calendars help with timing?
Forex Factory lists market-moving data and expected times, helping traders avoid entries before volatile releases. It also shows consensus estimates, which frame surprise risk. By planning around these windows, investors can manage slippage, reduce noise trades, and set alerts for pre-Asia market moves.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
