What is driving oil prices today?

A spike followed strikes on Iran, raising fears of supply and shipping risks near the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are adding a risk premium for war insurance, rerouting, and potential production hits. Limited OPEC+ supply increases are not enough to offset those concerns, so futures and refined products are reacting with higher prices and wider intraday swings.

Could a Strait of Hormuz closed scenario push crude to $100?

Yes, if flows halt or stay impaired, crude could quickly approach $100 as Gulf exports face limited bypass options. Insurance and freight costs would jump, buyers would compete for secure barrels, and inventories would draw faster. The longer the disruption lasts, the more durable the price impact becomes across spot and forward curves.

How do shipping disruptions impact US inflation and stocks?

Higher freight and insurance costs lift landed crude and refined product prices, which can feed into gasoline and transport expenses. That may lift inflation expectations and pressure equity multiples. Energy stocks often gain, while airlines, shippers, and some consumer names can struggle. The broader S&P 500 response depends on duration, policy reaction, and growth data.

What should S&P 500 investors watch this week?

Track oil prices today, stock futures, EIA inventory data, and any confirmed changes to Hormuz traffic. Watch CPI or inflation expectations for rate implications. Monitor sector breadth, credit spreads, and the VIX for stress signals. If volatility stays high, consider defined-risk hedges and staged entries rather than all-in trades.

Global Market Insights

^GSPC Today, March 02: Oil Spike on Iran Strikes Weighs on Futures

ByDanny Kontos March 2, 2026

Oil prices today jumped 8% to 12% after strikes on Iran, while stock futures slipped about 1% as traders priced a wider Middle East risk premium. The move reflects fears of shipping disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, higher insurance costs, and tighter supplies. Energy names gained in premarket trade, but rate‑sensitive areas faced pressure. We lay out how oil prices today may influence inflation expectations, sector leadership, and short‑term positioning for US investors watching the S&P 500 into the open.