Headwaters 4011.T (JPX) down 15% pre-market on 28 Jan 2026: watch support
The 4011.T stock plunged 15.02% pre-market to JPY 2,830.00 on 28 Jan 2026, making Headwaters one of the top losers on the JPX session. Heavy volume of 322,100 shares versus an average of 36,754 amplified the move. Traders flag the drop ahead of an earnings release on 13 Feb 2026 and watch near-term support around JPY 2,775.00 for buying interest.
Price action: 4011.T stock pre-market move
Headwaters (4011.T) opened at JPY 3,005.00 and fell to a pre-market quote of JPY 2,830.00. The one-day change was -500.00 or -15.02%, with a day low of JPY 2,775.00 and a day high of JPY 3,060.00. Volume surged to 322,100 shares, or a relative volume of 8.76, signaling outsized selling compared with the average daily volume of 36,754.
This price action pushed the stock below its 50-day average of JPY 2,977.96. The rapid gap and volume suggest short-term weakness and a potential washout if news or earnings fail to calm markets.
Drivers and catalysts: 4011.T stock news and sector context
No single corporate news item is public in the feed, but the stock faces sector rotation risks. Headwaters operates in Technology and Software – Application, where the sector average PE is 27.13. Headwaters trade multiples are elevated, which can amplify moves on sentiment shifts.
Catalysts to monitor include the company earnings announcement on 2026-02-13, any update on commercial AI contracts, and broader tech flows in Japan. Company details are at the Headwaters website. For corporate filings and listing data see the JPX page for 4011.T Japan Exchange Group.
Financials and valuation: 4011.T stock fundamentals
Key reported metrics show EPS JPY 27.31 and a quoted PE of 103.63 on the last snapshot. TTM metrics list a PE around 74.14, a price-to-sales of 3.59, and a price-to-book of 9.69. Market capitalization stands near JPY 10,751,849,200.00, with 3,799,240 shares outstanding.
Balance-sheet flags include a current ratio of 0.57 and debt-to-equity of 1.44, indicating leverage and tight short-term liquidity. Revenue growth was strong in FY2024 at 25.52%, but cash flow yields read low, and working capital is negative. These factors explain the high multiple and investor caution.
Technicals and liquidity: 4011.T stock setup
Momentum indicators are mixed. RSI reads 61.41, MACD histogram is positive, and CCI sits at 151.15. Volatility is elevated with ATR JPY 121.80 and Bollinger Bands at upper JPY 3,092.49 and lower JPY 2,588.41. The stock sits below the 50-day average and well under the 200-day mean of JPY 3,500.42.
Liquidity spiked with on-book volume. On-balance volume (OBV) turned negative -396,000.00, and money flow (MFI) is high at 78.98, which suggests distribution. Short-term technical support levels: JPY 2,775.00 and prior year low JPY 2,663.00.
Meyka AI grade & forecast: 4011.T stock rating and model
Meyka AI rates 4011.T with a score out of 100: 75.53 (Grade B+, Suggestion: BUY). This grade factors in S&P 500 benchmark comparison, sector performance, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus. These grades are not guaranteed and we are not financial advisors.
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a yearly price of JPY 4,343.52 and a monthly level at JPY 3,201.25. Versus the current price JPY 2,830.00, the yearly projection implies an upside of 53.49%. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.
Risks and outlook: 4011.T stock risks and opportunities
Principal risks include high valuation, leverage, and thin cash flow yields. Headwaters shows debt-to-equity 1.44, a low current ratio 0.57, and net current asset shortfall. A disappointing FY2025 earnings result could deepen the sell-off.
Opportunities stem from AI adoption and recurring cloud and platform revenues. Watch support at JPY 2,700.00 as a risk point. Realistic near-term price targets: conservative JPY 2,700.00, base recovery JPY 3,200.00, and bull target aligned with Meyka AI yearly JPY 4,343.52.
Final Thoughts
Short-term the 4011.T stock sits among the JPX top losers after a 15.02% pre-market decline to JPY 2,830.00 on 28 Jan 2026. The move combines heavy volume, elevated multiples, and a near-term earnings catalyst on 13 Feb 2026. Meyka AI assigns a 75.53 score (Grade B+, Suggestion BUY), and its model projects a yearly level of JPY 4,343.52, implying +53.49% from today. That upside reflects a higher-risk, growth-based thesis versus clear balance-sheet and liquidity shortcomings. Traders should watch support at JPY 2,775.00 and the 50-day average JPY 2,977.96. Use the upcoming earnings and any fresh contract news to reassess position sizing. Meyka AI provides this AI-powered market analysis, but forecasts and grades are model outputs, not guarantees.
FAQs
Why did 4011.T stock fall pre-market today?
The pre-market drop of 15.02% reflects heavy selling, a large volume spike, and valuation concerns. Investors are also cautious ahead of Headwaters’ earnings on 13 Feb 2026 and broader tech-sector rotation in Japan.
What is Meyka AI’s view and forecast for 4011.T stock?
Meyka AI rates 4011.T 75.53/100 (B+, BUY). The model projects a yearly price of JPY 4,343.52, implying about 53.49% upside versus JPY 2,830.00. Forecasts are projections, not guarantees.
What are the key risks for 4011.T stock investors?
Key risks include a high PE multiple, leverage (debt-to-equity 1.44), low current ratio 0.57, and weak cash flow yields. Poor earnings or lost contracts could cause further downside.
Disclaimer:
Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
