What caused the Hong Kong budget surplus for 2025-26?

A rebound in capital-market activity led the improvement. More IPOs and bond issuance lifted fee income, while higher equity trading boosted stamp duty revenue by tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars. A steadier property backdrop supported sentiment. Together, these factors flipped a previously projected HK$67 billion deficit into a HK$2.9 billion surplus.

How do revived IPOs support stamp duty revenue?

New listings tend to raise trading interest before and after debut. That drives higher share turnover, which increases stamp duty collected on transactions. When after-market performance is stable and follow-on issuance continues, secondary trading stays active, extending the stamp duty boost beyond listing day and reinforcing the fiscal impact.

What does higher stock market turnover mean for investors?

Higher turnover usually brings tighter spreads, better price discovery, and smoother trade execution. That can support valuations and reduce trading costs. It may also improve access for institutional and retail investors to new deals. In short, deeper liquidity can help with entries, exits, and risk control across different market conditions.

What risks could narrow the surplus in 2025-26?

Key risks include global rate volatility, weaker earnings, softer IPO demand, and any renewed property slowdown. These could reduce turnover and issuance, which would weigh on fee and stamp duty revenue. Policy changes to taxes or incentives could also shift activity levels and affect the Hong Kong budget surplus trajectory.

Global Market Insights

Hong Kong Budget Surplus for 2025-26 as IPOs Revive — February 28

ByDanny Kontos February 28, 2026February 28, 2026

Hong Kong budget surplus headlines matter for investors. The city now projects a HK$2.9 billion consolidated surplus for 2025-26, reversing a prior forecast of a HK$67 billion deficit. The key drivers are a revived Hong Kong IPO pipeline, stronger bond issuance, and higher stock market turnover that lifted stamp duty revenue by tens of billions. A steadier property backdrop also helps confidence. We break down why this shift matters, how it may support liquidity, and the signals to track through 2026.