January 02: Japan New Year Cards Fall ~26-30%, Mail Revenue at Risk
Japan New Year cards decline is accelerating in 2026. Nationwide deliveries are near 363 million, about 26% lower year on year. In the Tokai region, about 31.02 million were delivered, roughly a 30% drop, while Shizuoka saw 9.2 million, down 27.5%. This shift to digital greetings squeezes Japan Post mail volume and raises questions over letter-mail pricing. For Hong Kong investors on January 2, the signal is clear: softer demand may spill into paper, printing, and last-mile services linked to nengajo 2026, with margin risks if fixed costs cannot flex.
Mail volumes slump and revenue implications
New Year 2026 deliveries show steep erosion. Nationwide volume is near 363 million, about 26% lower than last year. The Tokai three prefectures handled about 31.02 million items, down roughly 30% source. In Shizuoka, New Year mail totaled 9.2 million, a 27.5% fall source. These figures confirm a broad Japan New Year cards decline across regions, not just urban centers.
Japan Post mail volume shows structural pressure from fewer greetings and faster digital adoption. Letter operations carry high fixed costs for sorting and delivery. When seasonal cards drop by a quarter or more, unit costs rise unless routes, shifts, and processing windows resize. That dynamic risks margin compression in early 2026, and it could force pricing, product, or network adjustments to stabilize cash flow.
Consumers now favor group chats, social apps, and e-cards for seasonal greetings. Younger users rarely buy stamps for cards, while older senders trim lists. This behavior reduces postal deliveries Japan during the one day that used to anchor volumes. Once habits flip, reversion is rare, which suggests further declines ahead even if the economy improves.
Knock-on effects for printers, paper, and delivery
Commercial printers that usually run December jobs for seasonal cards will likely see weaker order books. Japan New Year cards decline cuts plate changes, inks, and overtime in the run-up to January 1. For nengajo 2026, we expect more template downloads and on-demand photo prints, not large offset batches. The mix shift caps utilization and narrows margins for small print shops.
Lower greeting-card demand reduces specialty card stock, envelopes, and finishing work. Converters may pivot to packaging and labels, yet that does not fully replace seasonal volume spikes. Buyers also optimize paper weights to trim costs. For suppliers with exposure to Japan, this season points to softer shipments and tighter pricing power into Q1 2026.
Seasonal hires usually support doorstep drops on January 1 and 2. With lighter bags, managers can cut hours or reassign riders to parcels. That helps efficiency but caps overtime income for temporary staff. If the trend persists, fleet size, route density, and delivery-frequency planning will adapt, with priority shifting toward parcels and same-day services.
Why it matters to Hong Kong investors
Hong Kong exporters supply inks, packaging materials, and print services to Japan. Japan New Year cards decline hints at softer near-term demand for those categories. Firms that rely on seasonal spikes may face slower orders and tougher price talks. Watch customer updates, purchase plans, and lead times for Q1 as bellwethers for cross-border sales.
We see a clear read-through: letter-mail weakens while parcels hold steady or grow. Local operators can manage by leaning into e-commerce handling, lockers, and tracking upgrades. If stamp demand slides, product bundles and digital notices can support yield. The theme mirrors Japan Post mail volume pressure but with more parcel opportunity.
Guidance from postal operators, printers, and paper suppliers will be key. Look for volume disclosures, new surcharges, and product changes between January and March. For nengajo 2026, track pre-order trends from autumn, marketing around seasonal designs, and any loyalty rewards that shift behavior. Policy moves or subsidies for logistics digitization could also shape returns.
Final Thoughts
For investors in Hong Kong, the message is practical. A sharp Japan New Year cards decline points to lasting changes in consumer behavior. Nationwide volume near 363 million, down 26%, and regional drops of about 30% show a structural reset. We expect pressure on Japan Post mail volume and slimmer seasonal work for printers, paper converters, and delivery contractors. Portfolio actions include favoring parcel-led logistics, diversified packaging, and software-enabled print workflows. Avoid overreliance on greeting-card cycles when modeling Q1 revenue. Track disclosures on volume, pricing, and cost control through the March quarter. The winners will be operators who shift capacity and product mix quickly.
FAQs
More people used social apps and e-cards, while younger users rarely buy physical cards. Older senders trimmed lists. Retail card prices also rose, and convenience stores promote digital options. Together, these shifts pushed physical greetings down sharply for nengajo 2026.
Seasonal cards once drove a high-volume, low-margin spike that improved network utilization. With volumes down about a quarter, unit costs rise unless routes and shifts shrink. That puts pressure on mail revenue and may prompt pricing, product, or service changes to protect margins.
Printers lose short-run jobs, paper makers sell less specialty stock, and delivery contractors see fewer letter drops. Packaging and parcels can offset some volume, but the seasonal greeting-card gap is hard to fill. Suppliers with heavier exposure to Japan will feel it first in Q1.
Monitor company guidance for volume and pricing, early Q1 order books at printers, and any postal surcharges. Track parcel growth, locker deployments, and digital notices. Currency moves between HKD and JPY also matter for import costs, translated earnings, and hedging decisions.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
