What is Polymarket and how is it different from polls?

Polymarket is a prediction market where participants trade event contracts, producing real-time odds. Unlike polls, prices reflect skin-in-the-game decisions and update continuously as new information lands. That creates market-implied probabilities that often react faster than surveys, while still needing checks against other data sources.

How should UK investors use these odds day to day?

Use the odds to schedule research, set alerts, and plan scenarios. If a probability crosses a preset level, reassess positions, hedges, and stops. Cross-verify with rates futures, options, and company updates. Treat the figures as a signal to act on your process, not a standalone trade idea.

Will this affect FTSE 100 portfolios?

Indirectly, yes. Odds on global rates, US elections, or mega-cap earnings can shift risk appetite and sector leadership. Use changes to review duration in gilts, GBP exposure, and cyclical versus defensive weights. For holdings with US revenue, note currency sensitivity if probabilities move the dollar and global risk sentiment.

Global Market Insights

January 08: Dow Jones–Polymarket Deal Brings Live Odds to WSJ

ByHuzaifa Zahoor January 8, 2026January 8, 2026

Polymarket will power live odds across WSJ, Barron’s, and MarketWatch under a new Dow Jones partnership. For UK investors, this adds a clear read on market-implied probabilities for rates, elections, and major earnings. We can watch real-time shifts in confidence and plan around risk. The move also boosts News Corp’s data edge, while rivals chase prediction market data. Here is what changes, why it matters, and how we can use it in daily decisions.