What happened to François Tremblay, and why does it matter for investors?

He left the CAQ caucus after a reported impaired driving arrest. The party has dropped from 90 to 79 seats, tightening its operating margin. This can slow bill passage, approvals, and procurements that underpin public projects. Investors should plan for longer timelines and be selective on Quebec-exposed bids and working-capital needs.

Does the CAQ still hold a majority in Quebec’s National Assembly?

Yes. The CAQ still has a working majority, though with a slimmer cushion than at the start of the term. A smaller caucus raises attendance risk and can narrow legislative ambition. Expect more incremental files and a greater focus on consensus measures to avoid close-call defeats.

Which policy areas in Quebec are most exposed to delays?

Large infrastructure, transportation, housing, and energy proposals face the greatest procedural risk, given committee work and stakeholder consultations. Healthcare IT and education facility upgrades can also slide if calendars compress. Firms tied to provincial capex should add schedule buffers and consider phasing to protect milestones and cash conversions.

How should investors manage Quebec politics risk right now?

Use scenario planning, longer bid-validity periods, and price-adjustment clauses where permitted. Stage mobilization, diversify pipelines across regions, and monitor caucus changes, cabinet moves, and key committee sessions. Reassess exposures monthly. If momentum stalls, shift capacity to private clients or other provinces to keep utilization and margins stable.

Law and Government

January 10: CAQ Turmoil Deepens as Francois Tremblay Exits Caucus

ByDanny Kontos January 10, 2026January 10, 2026

Francois Tremblay CAQ DUI headlines a fast-moving political risk in Quebec. The MNA’s exit from the CAQ caucus cuts the party’s seats from 90 to 79, shrinking its margin and clouding near-term policy moves. Investors in Quebec face potential timing shifts on bills, permits, and public contracts as the fall election cycle nears. We assess implications for capital projects, sector exposure, and monitoring tools. With the Francois Tremblay CAQ DUI case still fresh, prudence on timelines and pricing is smart.