What are the key dates and tariff levels to track?

Two dates matter. February 1 marks a threatened 10% tariff on goods from key European NATO allies. June 1 could lift that rate to 25% if no Greenland agreement is reached. Headlines before each date may move markets, so investors should reassess hedges and liquidity ahead of both deadlines.

How could this affect the Swiss franc and rates?

Escalating US-Europe trade tensions can boost CHF as a safe haven, tightening Swiss financial conditions. A stronger franc reduces translated earnings for exporters. The SNB could respond to excessive moves through FX operations while watching inflation and growth. Consider partial currency hedges, staged around the tariff dates, to smooth volatility.

Which Swiss sectors may be most exposed?

Capital goods, specialty chemicals, and watches are most sensitive via supply chains and US retail demand. Pharma exposure is more about pricing and USD flows than tariffs directly. Smaller firms linked to EU subcontractors may see sharper swings. Investors should test margin assumptions under higher trade costs and potential delivery delays.

What can investors do before February 1 and June 1?

Raise CHF liquidity, reduce high beta exposure tied to transatlantic revenues, and add option hedges for downside tails. Prefer strong balance sheets and recurring cash flow. Stagger FX hedges around the two tariff dates. Monitor any EU retaliation options or progress on the Greenland dispute that could alter risk pricing quickly.

Law and Government

January 18: Trump’s EU Tariff Threat Escalates, Trade Risks Mount

ByHuzaifa Zahoor January 18, 2026January 18, 2026

Trump EU tariffs are back in focus after a threat to impose a 10% levy on key European NATO allies from February 1, rising to 25% by June 1 unless a Greenland deal is reached. This raises US-Europe trade tensions and policy uncertainty. For Switzerland, the risk centers on supply chains, safe-haven flows into CHF, and pressure on export-heavy sectors. We outline the timeline, potential EU retaliation options, and practical steps for portfolios in CH.