What did the latest Poland retail sales report show?

GUS reported a 5.3% year-on-year increase in December retail sales in real terms. Big-ticket categories like furniture and household appliances led gains, with autos also firm. The figure missed forecasts slightly, suggesting steady but moderating momentum after holiday spending. Markets still viewed the mix as supportive for the zloty and Polish assets.

Why did USDPLN fall to its lowest since 2018?

Investors focused on steady domestic demand, a supportive inflation backdrop, and expectations for a cautious central bank. That combination helped PLN, even with a slight data miss. Softer US rate expectations and stable energy prices also aided EM FX. Together, these drivers pushed USDPLN to multi-year lows.

How does this affect the Polish GDP outlook for 2025?

The data support a consumption-led recovery but may trim forecasts slightly versus earlier hopes. Durable goods strength is a positive sign, yet the softer surprise suggests cautious optimism. We expect analysts to watch wage growth, CPI, and euro area demand before upgrading the Polish GDP outlook for 2025 materially.

What should Singapore investors do with this information?

Keep EM exposure diversified and sized to risk tolerance. Consider partial hedges on PLN or EM baskets, especially around data releases. Monitor USDPLN levels, CPI prints, and NBP meetings. Use low-cost funds and review FX impacts in SGD terms to avoid surprises in portfolio performance.

Global Market Insights

January 26: Poland Retail Sales Miss; USDPLN at Lowest Since 2018

ByHuzaifa Zahoor January 26, 2026

Poland retail sales rose 5.3% year over year in December in real terms, slightly below expectations. Big-ticket items like furniture and appliances led gains, with autos also firm. Despite the miss, the Polish zloty strengthened, sending USDPLN to its lowest since 2018. For Singapore investors, this mix of steady consumption, softer surprise, and a stronger PLN shapes how we view emerging market currency risk, central bank paths, and European exposure in portfolios. We break down the GUS retail data, market moves, and the Polish GDP outlook for 2025.