JSWENERGY.NS Stock Today: January 28 slides on Jefferies target cut
JSW Energy share price slipped after a soft Q3. Shares of JSW Energy (JSWENERGY.NS) fell 6.6% to ₹446.10 on January 28, tracking a weaker‑than‑expected EBITDA due to lower renewable output. Jefferies trimmed FY26–FY28 estimates and cut its target to ₹660 while keeping Buy, flagging near‑term execution and leverage risks. Volume spiked to 57.7 lakh vs 26.6 lakh average, hinting at strong participation. With year‑to‑date down 12.3% and 52‑week low at ₹418.75, attention turns to guidance and upcoming capacity additions.
Why the stock fell today
The stock closed at ₹446.10, down ₹31.55 or 6.61%, after opening at ₹442.00 and trading between ₹438.70 and ₹447.60. Turnover rose as volume hit 57,73,787 shares versus a 26,55,633 average, showing active selling. The move leaves the stock 12.34% lower YTD and 17.65% lower over one year, narrowing the gap to the ₹418.75 52‑week low.
The drop followed a Q3 EBITDA miss tied to weaker renewable generation. Jefferies cut its target to ₹660 and trimmed FY26–FY28 estimates while retaining Buy, citing near‑term execution, leverage and valuation concerns. Coverage highlighted the brokerage call and results impact for the day’s move source.
Q3 takeaways and Jefferies view
Management delivered strong year‑on‑year revenue and EBITDA growth, but the quarter missed estimates due to a renewable generation miss. With a 4,559 MW fleet across thermal, hydro and solar, variability in wind and solar can affect margins and cash flows. Investors will watch plant load factors, availability, and scheduling discipline in the March quarter for signs of recovery.
Jefferies’ reduced estimates reflect lower near‑term EBITDA assumptions and execution risk on the growth pipeline, but the Buy stance signals confidence in medium‑term additions. The target was cut to ₹660, keeping upside from current levels if delivery improves. Broader market coverage of the Q3 impact appeared through the day source.
Valuation, balance sheet and outlook
At ₹446.10, the stock trades at a P/E of 33.75 on EPS of ₹13.04. Enterprise value to EBITDA is about 18.31x. Dividend yield stands near 0.45% on a ₹2 per share payout. Market capitalisation is roughly ₹76,911 crore. Sustained commissioning and higher renewable availability are key to defending multiples and lifting cash yields.
Debt remains a watchpoint. Net debt to EBITDA is 8.32x, interest coverage is 2.03x, and the current ratio is 0.77x, suggesting tight liquidity. These metrics make project execution and receivables discipline important. Clear project milestones and funding visibility could ease concerns even as the company targets capacity additions and scaling of storage and solar assets.
Key technical levels for traders
Short‑term momentum cooled after the fall, but oscillators remain elevated: RSI 64.5, CCI 149.7, and Stochastic %K at 87.5. ADX at 21.3 indicates a weak trend. The price closed near the lower Bollinger Band at ₹445.41, hinting at potential mean reversion if selling pressure fades. Money Flow Index at 76.4 suggests stretched conditions.
Immediate support sits near ₹445 and then ₹438; below that, ₹418.75 is critical. On the upside, the 50‑DMA at ₹486.10 and 200‑DMA at ₹509.54 are strong hurdles. A close above ₹486 would improve momentum. Day traders can track the Keltner lower band at ₹465 and midline near ₹490 for intraday cues.
Final Thoughts
JSW Energy share price fell on January 28 after a Q3 EBITDA miss tied to weaker renewable output, prompting a Jefferies target cut to ₹660 even as the Buy rating stayed. The stock now trades near the lower Bollinger band and well below its 50‑DMA. Valuation at 33.75x earnings looks demanding without clearer delivery, while leverage and liquidity metrics make execution and receivables key. For investors, the next leg rests on commissioning progress, renewable availability, and visibility on EBITDA uplift. Near term, watch ₹438–₹445 as support and ₹486 as resistance. Position sizing and staggered entries can help manage risk.
FAQs
Why did the JSW Energy share price fall today?
It dropped 6.6% to ₹446.10 after Q3 EBITDA missed estimates due to weaker renewable generation. The move was amplified by heavy volumes and a cautious tone from Jefferies on near‑term execution, leverage, and valuation. Traders also reacted to the stock sitting below key moving averages, adding pressure.
What is Jefferies’ new target for JSW Energy and its rating?
Jefferies cut its target price to ₹660 while maintaining a Buy rating. The brokerage trimmed FY26–FY28 estimates to reflect lower near‑term EBITDA assumptions and execution risks, but still sees upside from current levels if commissioning stays on track and renewable availability improves.
What should investors watch after the Q3 results?
Focus on commissioning timelines, plant availability, and renewable generation trends. Track leverage metrics like net debt to EBITDA at 8.32x, interest coverage at 2.03x, and liquidity with a 0.77x current ratio. Price action around the 50‑DMA ₹486 and support at ₹438–₹445 will guide near‑term sentiment.
Is JSW Energy expensive at current levels?
At ₹446.10, the stock trades at 33.75x earnings and roughly 18.31x EV/EBITDA, with a dividend yield near 0.45%. Valuation looks full without clearer EBITDA growth. Upside depends on execution of capacity additions, improved renewable availability, and better cash conversion to support multiples.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
