Why is Macquarie Bank increasing stress tests on SaaS exposures?

Management is responding to AI software risk. Generative AI can raise churn, pressure pricing, and slow sales for SaaS firms. Tougher scenarios test longer cash burn, tighter funding, and delayed exits. This may lift provisions and valuation haircuts now, aiming to improve durability and reduce downside if conditions worsen.

How does CGM’s rebound affect Macquarie Group earnings?

A stronger CGM supports steadier revenue through client flows in energy, power, and metals. This can offset softer marks in private tech. If commodities trading income holds, earnings volatility should fall, improving confidence in cash generation and capital. Investors will watch sustainability of client activity and market spreads.

What are the key risks to watch over the next quarter?

Watch provisioning in tech, fair value changes in private assets, and CGM run-rate. Funding costs, liquidity, and capital ratios also matter. If software marks weaken further or client activity slows, sentiment could soften. Clear disclosures on AI software risk and underwriting standards will shape near-term views.

Could valuation improve despite tougher tech marks?

Yes, if steadier CGM income and better-quality earnings offset cautious tech valuations. Markets often reward consistent returns and strong risk control. However, heavier provisions or slower deal cycles can cap upside. Monitoring capital settings, payout guidance, and disclosure detail will help judge whether multiples can hold.

Global Market Insights

Macquarie Bank Today, February 12: AI SaaS Stress Tests as CGM Profits Rebound

ByDanny Kontos February 12, 2026February 12, 2026

Macquarie Bank is stepping up stress tests on its SaaS loan and equity exposures as AI software risk rises, while its Commodities & Global Markets unit signals a stronger profit rebound. For Australian investors, the mix of tighter risk controls and improving commodities trading income could reshape Macquarie Group earnings and valuation. Today’s update matters for portfolios on the ASX because it points to a more resilient balance sheet, steadier fee and trading flows, and clearer catalysts to watch in the months ahead.