META Stock Today January 29: Jumps 10% on Q4 Beat, $115-$135B AI Capex
META stock spiked about 10% after Meta Platforms (META) topped Q4 estimates and guided Q1 revenue above consensus. Meta earnings also included a bold AI capex guidance of USD 115–135 billion for 2026 to speed model development. For Swiss investors, the move highlights strong demand trends in ads and AI. We explain the drivers, the margin trade-offs, and the technical picture to help you decide your next step.
Q4 snapshot and outlook
Meta earnings beat expectations as holiday demand and better ad tools supported advertising revenue across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp Business. Management guided Q1 sales above consensus, signaling steady ad budgets and improving formats like Reels. Investors welcomed the outlook as a sign that engagement and pricing remain healthy even amid macro uncertainty. The company’s two-segment model continues to scale with strong operating leverage.
The after-hours jump shows rising confidence in execution. For CH investors funding in CHF, remember that META stock trades in USD, so foreign exchange can add volatility to returns. Liquidity peaks during US trading hours. The company now pays a small dividend, adding a cash component to total return, but the core driver remains earnings growth and product innovation.
AI capex guidance: scale and trade-offs
Management outlined USD 115–135 billion of AI capex for 2026 to expand data centers, GPUs, networking, and training infrastructure. The goal is to accelerate model development, improve ranking, and build new AI services. Early market reaction was positive, reflecting confidence in long-term monetization. See reporting from CNBC and blue News.
Bigger capex can pressure free cash flow in the near term. TTM capex to operating cash flow is 0.58, and capex to revenue is 0.33, showing a capital-heavy build cycle. Free cash flow per share is 17.82, with a free cash flow yield near 2.65%. Investors should expect timing gaps between spend and monetization, which could make quarterly cash flows bumpier even if long-run returns improve.
Valuation, profitability, and shareholder returns
META stock trades around 28.9x TTM earnings and 8.94x TTM sales, set against robust fundamentals. TTM net margin is 30.9%, and 2024 EPS grew 62%. Return on equity sits near 31%. These metrics suggest quality, but the multiple implies expectations for continued growth in advertising revenue and AI-driven products. Execution on AI and cost discipline will be key to sustain the premium.
Meta introduced a dividend with a 0.31% TTM yield and an 8.98% payout ratio, leaving room for reinvestment and buybacks. Shares outstanding are about 2.52 billion. Analyst sentiment skews positive: 2 Strong Buys, 51 Buys, 4 Holds, and 0 Sells, implying a Buy consensus. This backdrop supports dips, but results and guidance will steer the next leg.
Technical levels Swiss traders watch
RSI at 49.15 is neutral, while ADX at 28 signals a firm trend. The MACD histogram is negative, hinting at consolidation. Short-term traders may prefer buying strength after confirmed breakouts or using pullbacks near moving averages. Given earnings volatility, size positions carefully and wait for clear closes above recent highs before adding.
Bollinger Bands show an upper band near 670.68 and a lower band near 642.73. Keltner Channels flag an upper channel around 685.28. Average True Range is 15.26, suggesting active intraday ranges. For swing trades, watch a close above the upper band for momentum confirmation. Keep stops tight around recent swing lows and review updates as new guidance lands.
Final Thoughts
META stock rallied on a clean earnings beat, stronger Q1 guidance, and a bold AI capex roadmap. The upside case is simple: improving ad efficiency, strong engagement, and faster AI rollouts can expand revenue and defend margins over time. The risk is the timing gap between heavy spending and cash returns. For Swiss investors, focus on three points: monitor USD exposure, track margin trends as AI capex scales, and let price confirm your view using clear levels. If you own shares, consider trimming only if valuation stretches without fresh progress. If you are on the sidelines, build a watchlist plan around breakouts and earnings updates. Stay data driven and disciplined.
FAQs
Why did META stock jump about 10% after-hours?
Meta earnings beat expectations, and management guided Q1 revenue above consensus. The company also outlined a large AI capex plan to speed model development. Together, these signals boosted confidence in revenue growth, engagement, and future product monetization, prompting traders to re-rate the shares higher after the release.
How big is Meta’s AI capex and what will it fund?
Management guided AI capex to USD 115–135 billion for 2026. Spending targets data centers, GPUs, networking, and training infrastructure. The aim is to improve ranking, power new AI services, and accelerate model development that can support ads, messaging, and future products with better relevance and monetization.
What should Swiss investors consider before buying META stock?
META stock trades in USD, so CHF-based investors face currency swings on top of share moves. Liquidity is highest during US market hours. Review position sizing, use clear stop levels, and track margin trends as AI capex scales. Consider your time horizon and tolerance for earnings-related volatility.
Is META stock expensive after the move?
On TTM figures, META stock trades near 28.9x earnings and 8.94x sales with a 30.9% net margin and strong growth in 2024 EPS. The multiple expects ongoing execution in advertising and AI. It looks reasonable if growth persists, but downside exists if spending outpaces monetization.
What technical levels matter this week?
RSI at 49.15 is neutral, and ADX at 28 shows a solid trend. Watch Bollinger bands near 670.68 and 642.73, and Keltner upper channel around 685.28. ATR at 15.26 implies wide ranges. Traders often wait for closes above resistance for confirmation before adding exposure.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
