Monero USD Drops 5.17% Daily: Can $390 Support Hold?
Monero USD (XMRUSD) is trading at $619.39 as of January 17, 2026, down 5.17% in the last 24 hours. The privacy-focused cryptocurrency has faced selling pressure, testing key support levels. Market participants are watching whether XMRUSD can stabilize above the $390 support zone. Understanding the technical setup and market sentiment around Monero USD helps traders assess the current risk-reward environment.
Why Is Monero USD Dropping Today?
Monero USD declined sharply on January 17, 2026, losing $58.16 in value from the previous close of $677.55. The 8.58% decline from the open at $678.17 reflects broader market weakness affecting privacy coins. Trading volume surged to 323.2 million, indicating active selling pressure. The day’s range of $617 to $718.71 shows volatility as traders reassess positions. Monero USD’s year-to-date performance remains positive at 53.35%, but recent momentum has stalled.
Monero USD Technical Analysis
The RSI sits at 55.06, indicating neutral momentum without overbought or oversold extremes. MACD shows a bearish signal with the histogram at -3.32, suggesting downward pressure as the signal line (14.30) exceeds the MACD line (10.98). ADX reads 16.20, confirming weak trend strength with no clear directional bias. Bollinger Bands place price above the lower band at 390.58, providing a critical support zone. The upper band at 462.71 represents resistance, while the middle band at 426.64 acts as a neutral pivot point.
Monero USD Price Forecast
Monthly Forecast: The model targets $655.28, representing a 5.8% gain from current levels if buying pressure returns. Quarterly Forecast: A more cautious outlook suggests $446.23, implying 28% downside if weakness persists through Q1 2026. Yearly Forecast: The annual target sits at $241.17, reflecting significant bearish assumptions over 12 months. These forecasts may change due to market conditions, regulations, or unexpected events. The wide range between quarterly and yearly targets highlights uncertainty in Monero USD’s medium-term direction.
Market Sentiment and Trading Activity
Trading volume at 323.2 million exceeds the 90-day average of 177.5 million by 82%, showing elevated participation during the decline. This high relative volume (1.82x average) suggests conviction behind selling rather than thin liquidation. The 50-day moving average at $448.05 sits well below current price, indicating Monero USD has rallied significantly from its intermediate baseline. The 200-day average at $346.66 shows the longer-term uptrend remains intact despite recent weakness. Market cap stands at $11.9 billion, maintaining Monero USD’s position among major cryptocurrencies despite the daily pullback.
Support and Resistance Levels
The $390.58 lower Bollinger Band represents the most critical support zone, where buyers historically step in during selloffs. A break below this level could accelerate losses toward the $346.66 200-day moving average. The $462.71 upper Bollinger Band acts as near-term resistance, requiring a 25.3% rally to reach. The $448.05 50-day moving average provides intermediate resistance at 27.6% above current price. Year-to-date high of $798.91 remains far above current levels, showing how much momentum has deteriorated since earlier in 2026.
What’s Next for Monero USD?
Monero USD faces a critical juncture between the $390 support and $462 resistance. The weak ADX reading suggests trend strength is insufficient to drive sustained directional moves in either direction. Stochastic indicators at %K of 25.97 show oversold conditions, historically preceding bounces. However, the negative MACD histogram warns that downside momentum remains active. Traders should monitor whether volume contracts on any bounce, which would suggest consolidation rather than reversal. The next 48 hours will likely determine if Monero USD stabilizes or tests lower support levels.
Final Thoughts
Monero USD (XMRUSD) is navigating a challenging technical environment on January 17, 2026, with the 5.17% daily decline testing key support structures. The $390.58 Bollinger Band support represents the line in the sand for bulls, while resistance sits at $462.71. Technical indicators show mixed signals: neutral RSI, weak trend strength via ADX, and oversold Stochastic readings suggest a potential bounce, but the bearish MACD histogram warns caution. The monthly forecast of $655.28 implies recovery potential, though the quarterly target of $446.23 reflects downside risk. Market sentiment remains uncertain with elevated volume confirming active participation. Traders should watch for volume confirmation on any bounce to distinguish between temporary relief and sustained reversal. The broader context shows Monero USD remains up 53.35% year-to-date, but recent momentum loss demands respect for support levels.
FAQs
Monero USD fell due to broad selling pressure in privacy coins on January 17, 2026. Volume surged to 323.2 million, indicating conviction behind the decline. The MACD histogram turned negative, confirming downward momentum as traders reassessed positions.
The $390.58 lower Bollinger Band is the critical support zone. A break below this level could accelerate losses toward the 200-day moving average at $346.66. This support has historically attracted buyers during selloffs.
Stochastic indicators show %K at 25.97, suggesting oversold conditions. However, the negative MACD histogram warns that downside momentum remains active. Oversold readings often precede bounces, but confirmation requires volume contraction.
The yearly forecast targets $241.17, implying significant downside. However, the monthly target of $655.28 suggests recovery potential. The quarterly forecast at $446.23 sits between these extremes, reflecting medium-term uncertainty.
Monero USD trades at $619.39, down 22.4% from the yearly high of $798.91 set earlier in 2026. Despite the recent decline, it remains up 234% from the yearly low of $185.38, showing strong long-term performance.
Disclaimer:
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This content is for informational purposes only. The Forecast Prediction Model is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market data and sentiment analysis, not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
