MSFT Stock Today, January 08: Musk-OpenAI Trial Risk Puts License in Focus
We track MSFT as the Elon Musk OpenAI lawsuit raises fresh questions for Microsoft’s AI plans. MSFT stock traded at $472.85, down 1.18% today, after a U.S. judge said the fraud case tied to OpenAI’s for‑profit shift will go to a jury. Musk seeks, among other remedies, to void the Microsoft OpenAI license. The judge also noted strong defense arguments. We outline the risk, price action, and what investors should watch next in the Sam Altman case.
Legal overhang: what a jury trial could mean
A federal judge indicated the Elon Musk OpenAI lawsuit can proceed to a jury, keeping scrutiny on Microsoft’s economic ties and its OpenAI license. Musk’s complaint challenges OpenAI’s move to a for‑profit model. He seeks remedies that could affect agreements with Microsoft. The defense presented strong arguments, according to coverage by Reuters, but the jury path sustains headline risk for MSFT stock.
Legal outcomes span from no material change to adjustments in commercial terms. A full unwind of the Microsoft OpenAI license appears a low‑probability tail risk, yet it cannot be dismissed at this stage. The Sam Altman case will center on contracts and alleged promises. For investors in MSFT stock, we see a process risk rather than a thesis reset, per Business Insider.
Market reaction and key levels
MSFT stock closed at $472.85, down $5.66 (-1.18%). Intraday range was $469.50 to $476.07. Volume reached 25,250,300 versus a 22,957,162 average, signaling active trading around headlines. The 50‑day average price is $493.82 and the 200‑day is $478.92. Year range sits at $344.79 to $555.45. Market cap is about $3.59 trillion.
RSI at 48.88 sits near neutral. The MACD histogram turned positive (0.31), suggesting momentum stabilization. Bollinger lower band near $471.19 aligns with first support, then the Keltner lower channel around $467.08. Resistance appears near the middle band $482.17 and upper band $493.16. ATR at 7.97 points to wider daily swings. We would watch closes above $482 for confirmation.
Fundamentals and Street view
Microsoft posts EPS of $14.04 and trades at a 34.44 P/E. Margins remain strong with net margin near 35.7% and operating margin about 46.3%. Free cash flow per share is $10.50, with dividend per share at $3.40 and a ~0.70% yield. Leverage looks moderate with debt‑to‑equity around 0.17 and interest coverage over 54x, supporting flexibility for AI capex.
The Street skews bullish: 45 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell. Price targets range from $470 to $700, with a $630 median and $614.57 consensus. MSFT stock faces an earnings catalyst on January 28, 2026 after the bell. We expect investors to focus on Azure growth, AI monetization across Copilot, and expense discipline given elevated capex.
What to watch next
Beyond the jury‑trial signal, timing for the Musk case remains uncertain. We will watch any motions affecting discovery or contract interpretation, plus commentary from Microsoft on risk controls around OpenAI. Near term, the quarterly report on January 28 should update Copilot attach rates, Azure AI demand, and capex outlook, all key to MSFT stock valuation.
For diversified U.S. portfolios, we see the legal issue as a risk factor rather than a core thesis change today. Consider position sizing and staged entries near support zones. Traders may track closes above $482 for momentum confirmation. Long‑term investors could prioritize durable cash flow, high ROE, and productivity gains tied to AI workloads.
Final Thoughts
Today’s jury‑trial signal keeps the Elon Musk OpenAI lawsuit in focus and places the Microsoft OpenAI license under a brighter light. We see a broad outcome set, from minimal impact to contract tweaks, while a full unwind appears a tail risk. Price action shows buyers defending the $471 area, with resistance near $482 and $493. Strong margins, cash generation, and a deep product stack support long‑term appeal, but headline risk may lift volatility. Into January 28 earnings, we will watch Azure growth, Copilot traction, and capex. For most investors, disciplined sizing, attention to levels, and patience remain the best approach to MSFT stock.
FAQs
Why did MSFT stock fall today?
Shares slipped 1.18% to $472.85 as a judge said Elon Musk’s fraud case against OpenAI can go to a jury, keeping legal risk in view. Volume rose above average, signaling active trading on headlines. Support sits near $471, with resistance at $482 and $493. Fundamentals remain solid.
Could the Microsoft OpenAI license be voided by the court?
It is possible but appears a low‑probability tail risk right now. Remedies could range from no change to adjustments in terms. The judge noted strong defense arguments, but a jury will weigh facts. We view this as a process risk to monitor rather than a thesis change for MSFT stock.
What technical levels matter for MSFT stock now?
Key support aligns with the Bollinger lower band near $471 and the Keltner lower channel around $467. Resistance sits near $482 and $493. RSI at 48.88 is neutral, and a positive MACD histogram hints at stabilization. A daily close above $482 would improve momentum.
When is Microsoft’s next earnings and what matters most?
Microsoft reports on January 28, 2026 after the close. We will focus on Azure growth, AI monetization across Copilot, capex trajectory, and margin trends. Commentary on OpenAI exposure and risk controls could shape sentiment, given the ongoing Sam Altman case and Musk’s legal challenge.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
