Newcrest A$23.35 close (NCM.AX ASX) 15 Jan 2026: heavy volume hints upside
Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM.AX stock) closed the ASX session on 15 Jan 2026 at A$23.35, down 1.27% but with unusually heavy turnover of 106785449.00 shares. That volume was roughly 24.52x the stock’s average daily volume and put NCM.AX among the ASX most active names at market close. Traders will watch whether the extra liquidity reflects position rotation ahead of earnings or renewed interest in gold exposures.
NCM.AX stock intraday volume and price action
NCM.AX stock finished at A$23.35 after trading between A$22.97 and A$23.62 during the day. The share count of 106785449.00 vs average volume 4354702.00 underlines extraordinary activity, which drove a relative volume near 24.52.
This surge in trading, combined with a 1.27% fall from yesterday’s close, suggests short-term repositioning. One clear driver for intraday moves is liquidity flow into Basic Materials names, with miners reacting to metal price moves and peer news that can shift sentiment quickly
NCM.AX stock fundamentals and valuation
Newcrest Mining (NCM.AX) trades on ASX with market capitalisation A$20.88B and reported EPS A$1.33, giving a P/E near 17.56. Key ratios include price/book 1.19, EV/EBITDA 7.34, and debt/equity 0.17, which show moderate leverage and a valuation roughly in line with large gold peers.
Profitability metrics are solid: operating margin 26.80% and net margin 17.26%. Free cash flow per share sits at 0.56, while book value per share is 13.10, supporting a constructive balance-sheet view despite capital intensity in mining
Meyka AI rates NCM.AX with a score out of 100 and forecast
Meyka AI rates NCM.AX with a score out of 100: 65.06 | Grade: B | Suggestion: HOLD. This grade factors in S&P 500 benchmark comparison, sector performance, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus. These grades are not guaranteed and are informational only.
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects A$38.75 for a 1-year horizon versus the current price A$23.35, implying an upside of 65.99%. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees. Use this alongside company updates and commodity price outlooks when assessing positions
NCM.AX stock technicals and price targets
On a 50-day basis NCM.AX sits below its average at A$25.44 and below the 200-day average A$25.93, signalling near-term consolidation. Year range is A$16.93 to A$30.28, showing room to both downside support and resistance near the year high.
Analyst-style price targets to size scenarios: conservative A$26.00 (upside 11.46%), base/Meyka forecast A$38.75 (upside 65.99%), and bull A$54.31 (5-year forecast, upside 132.64%). These targets reflect different metal price and production assumptions; update targets as quarterly results arrive
NCM.AX stock risks and opportunities
Primary risks for NCM.AX stock are gold and copper price swings, project execution at Cadia/Telfer/Havieron, and geopolitical exposure in Papua New Guinea and Canada. Capital expenditure trends and cost inflation remain watchpoints, given capex-to-revenue of 0.24.
Opportunities include higher realised gold prices, exploration success at high-potential assets like Havieron, and continued free-cash-flow improvement. Newcrest’s debt-to-equity 0.17 and interest coverage 9.15 provide balance-sheet flexibility to fund growth or shareholder returns
Sector context and peer comparison for NCM.AX stock
NCM.AX sits in the ASX Basic Materials sector (Gold industry). Sector performance YTD is strong, with Basic Materials up double-digits in the last 12 months, and miners benefiting from commodity lift. Newcrest’s P/E near 17.56 compares competitively with peers such as Newmont and Northern Star.
Investors tracking NCM.AX should monitor broader commodity moves and peer earnings notes that can re-rate mining multiples rapidly. For context on sector flows, see recent ASX peer coverage and market activity source and index ETF holdings source
Final Thoughts
NCM.AX stock closed the ASX session on 15 Jan 2026 at A$23.35 on exceptionally heavy volume, marking it among the market’s most active names at close. Fundamentals show a solid operating margin and manageable leverage, with a P/E of 17.56 and EPS A$1.33. Meyka AI rates NCM.AX 65.06/100 (Grade B, HOLD) and projects a one-year price of A$38.75, implying +65.99% versus today’s price; this projection is model-based and not a guarantee. Short-term technicals suggest consolidation below the 50- and 200-day averages, while extraordinary intraday volume increases the chance of follow-through moves. For traders the stock is a liquid way to access gold exposure, but investors should weigh commodity risk, project execution and regional exposures. Use the Meyka AI forecast as one input, and update views after Newcrest’s next earnings and commodity updates
FAQs
What drove NCM.AX stock activity today?
NCM.AX stock saw heavy activity because volume surged to 106785449.00, about 24.52x average. That high turnover likely reflects repositioning ahead of earnings and sector flows in miners reacting to metal prices
Is NCM.AX stock undervalued based on fundamentals?
Valuation metrics show P/E 17.56 and price/book 1.19, which sit near peer levels. Newcrest’s margins and low debt support the valuation, but commodity risk means value depends on metal-price direction
What is Meyka AI’s forecast for NCM.AX stock?
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects A$38.75 in one year versus the current A$23.35, implying about 65.99% upside. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees
What are the main risks to NCM.AX stock?
Main risks include lower gold or copper prices, execution delays at Cadia/Telfer/Havieron, cost inflation and jurisdictional exposures in Papua New Guinea and Canada
Disclaimer:
Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
