NGLB.DE closes EUR 26.35 on 02 Jan 2026: oversold bounce eyeing 50-day support
NGLB.DE stock (Anglo American plc) closed at EUR 26.35 on XETRA in Germany on 02 Jan 2026 after a modest intraday rebound from a low of EUR 25.65. The move looks like an oversold bounce: volume was 10,171 shares versus an average of 15,923 and the 50-day average sits at EUR 24.22 while the 200-day average is EUR 26.87. Investors are reacting to a string of disappointing beats and misses in recent reports and the sector backdrop in Basic Materials, so we unpack fundamentals, technicals, and a model-based forecast for the coming 12 months.
Market move and session context
Anglo American plc (NGLB.DE) closed the XETRA session at EUR 26.35, up EUR 0.20 or 0.76% on 02 Jan 2026 after trading between EUR 25.65 and EUR 26.35. Volume of 10,171 was 0.64x the average daily volume of 15,923, indicating a light but focused rebound. The stock remains below its 200-day average of EUR 26.87 but above the 50-day average of EUR 24.22, a setup consistent with an oversold bounce rather than a clear trend reversal.
Earnings, revenue and recent results
Recent quarterly figures show continued pressure: on 20 Feb 2025 (BMO) Anglo reported EPS of -1.90909 versus an estimate of 0.539 and revenue of EUR 12,386,068,200.00 versus an estimate of EUR 12,615,019,512.00, a clear miss on profit and a small revenue shortfall. Prior quarters also showed EPS misses (for example 24 Oct 2024 EPS -0.51664 versus est 0.811), which helps explain negative trailing EPS and a negative PE of -12.09 reported in the full quote.
Fundamentals and valuation snapshot
Anglo American plc shows tangible book value per share of EUR 22.77 and book value per share of EUR 23.54, with price-to-book at 1.81 and price-to-sales at 1.58. Key ratios include free cash flow yield 5.78% and net debt to EBITDA around 3.03. Dividend yield is about 2.12% TTM with dividend per share EUR 0.66. The firm’s EPS is negative (TTM EPS -2.18) and interest coverage is weak, so valuation reflects a mix of asset backing and cyclical earnings risk in Basic Materials.
Technical view: oversold bounce setup
Technically, the stock’s one-day gain after a run of losses resembles an oversold bounce: the 50-day average is EUR 24.22 and the 200-day average sits at EUR 26.87, putting current price EUR 26.35 between the two. Short-term volatility (ATR EUR 0.28) and a relative low trading volume suggest traders are testing support rather than committing. Watch EUR 24.22 (50-day) as the immediate support and EUR 30.65 (52-week high) as the upside reference for a sustained recovery.
Meyka grade and model forecast
Meyka AI rates NGLB.DE with a score out of 100: 64.84 | Grade B | Suggestion: HOLD. This grade factors in S&P 500 benchmark comparison, sector performance, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a 12-month central target of EUR 29.50, implying an upside of 11.96% versus the current EUR 26.35. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees; downside scenarios to EUR 22.00 imply a -16.51% risk in a sustained downturn.
Risks and catalysts to watch
Key risks include a weaker metals price cycle, further earnings misses, and leverage (net debt metrics remain elevated). Catalysts that could sustain the bounce are stronger commodity prices (copper, platinum group metals), cost cuts that improve margins, and any positive trading updates from peers in Basic Materials. Sector momentum for Basic Materials has a 6M performance of 9.61% (sector context) which can help or hurt depending on commodity trends.
Final Thoughts
Key takeaways for NGLB.DE stock after the XETRA close at EUR 26.35 on 02 Jan 2026: the price action is consistent with an oversold bounce, not yet a confirmed trend reversal. Fundamentals show asset-backed valuation (book value per share EUR 23.54) but negative trailing EPS (TTM EPS -2.18) and tight interest coverage, which keeps risk elevated. Meyka AI rates NGLB.DE with a score out of 100: 64.84 | Grade B | Suggestion: HOLD, reflecting mixed fundamentals and sector exposure. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a 12-month target of EUR 29.50, an implied upside of 11.96% from EUR 26.35; conversely, a downside case to EUR 22.00 implies -16.51%. For traders focused on an oversold bounce strategy, watch intraday confirmation above EUR 26.87 (200-day average) and stronger volume; longer-term investors should weigh commodity cycles, recent earnings misses (EPS -1.90909 on 20 Feb 2025 BMO) and leverage when sizing positions. As an AI-powered market analysis platform, Meyka highlights both the short-term tactical rebound and the structural risks that make a cautious, research-led approach appropriate.
FAQs
The bounce followed oversold conditions after several earnings misses and a drop toward the 50-day average; light trading volume suggests short-term traders tested support rather than new long-term buying.
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a 12-month central target of EUR 29.50, implying an 11.96% upside from the current EUR 26.35; forecasts are model-based and not guarantees.
Watch EUR 24.22 as immediate support (50-day average) and EUR 26.87 as the 200-day pivot; a sustained move above EUR 26.87 with higher volume would support a trend recovery.
Recent reports showed EPS misses (for example EPS -1.90909 on 20 Feb 2025 versus est 0.539) and small revenue shortfalls, increasing near-term risk and pressure on valuation despite solid asset backing.
Disclaimer:
Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
