Q4 beat, softer guide cuts NOK (Nokia Oyj NYSE) 29 Jan 2026: Modest upside likely
Nokia reported a Q4 beat but issued softer 2026 guidance, and NOK stock closed at $6.82 on 29 Jan 2026 in the United States (NYSE). The market moved on the guidance, not the beat: revenue and EPS topped estimates but management warned growth will moderate. Volume surged to 64,275,523 shares, well above the 33,101,437 average, underscoring investor focus on forward guidance and the company’s AI and cloud strategy.
Earnings snapshot: beat on Q4, weaker 2026 guide
Nokia (NOK Nokia Oyj stock) reported fourth-quarter results that beat consensus on sales and EPS but flagged softer revenue expectations for 2026. Reported EPS was $0.19, and the market reacted mainly to management’s outlook, sending premarket trades down about 7%. Read the full call transcript and note management comments on cloud and AI strategy in the earnings transcript Seeking Alpha.
What drove the quarter and the guidance
Nokia’s Mobile Networks and Cloud and Network Services showed operational strength that lifted Q4 revenue metrics. R&D remains elevated at 23.01% of revenue, signalling investment behind software and AI-led offerings.
Management cited customer timing and some project cadence shifting into 2026 as the reason for softer guidance. That timing issue, rather than margin pressure, explains why EPS beat but the stock fell on the guide.
Valuation and core financials
At $6.82, Nokia trades with a reported PE of 33.24 and a market cap near $34.11B on the NYSE in USD. Key balance-sheet metrics support the business: debt-to-equity around 0.21, cash per share $1.05, and book value per share $3.64.
Cash generation looks healthy with free cash flow yield near 4.84% and a payout ratio about 66.32%, supporting the $0.12 annual dividend per share. These figures show a mix of investment and shareholder return that shapes valuation debates for NOK stock.
Trading and technical picture
Traders pushed volume to 64,275,523 versus an average of 33,101,437, giving a relative volume of 2.43. The 50-day average sits at $6.40 and the 200-day at $5.42, with a year range of $4.00 to $8.19. Momentum indicators show neutral-to-mixed signals: RSI 51.98 and MACD near zero, suggesting consolidation after the earnings move.
Price action around $6.82 will be watched for follow-through or a retest of the 50-day average as investors reassess guidance versus the operational beat.
Meyka grade and price forecast for NOK
Meyka AI rates NOK with a score out of 100: 70.50 / B+ (BUY). This grade factors in S&P 500 benchmark comparison, sector performance, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus. These grades are informational and not financial advice.
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a near-term monthly price of $7.07, a 12-month target of $7.32, and a three-year projection of $9.81. Versus the current $6.82, that implies model-based upside of 3.66% to $7.07 (monthly) and 7.38% to $7.32 (12-month), and 43.76% to $9.81 (three-year). Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.
Analyst consensus and investor takeaways
Street ratings show 7 buys, 4 holds, 2 sells and a consensus score of 3.00, reflecting mixed sentiment after the guide. Investors should weigh the beat and cash flow strength against the revenue timing risk in the guide. For active traders, the post-earnings volume spike offers short-term setups; for longer-term investors, the combination of R&D spend and stable free cash flow supports a patient exposure to NOK stock. See MarketBeat coverage for market reaction and news flow MarketBeat.
Final Thoughts
Nokia’s Q4 results delivered operational beats but a softer 2026 guide that explains the immediate sell-off. NOK stock closed at $6.82 on 29 Jan 2026, trading with elevated volume and mixed technical signals. Valuation metrics show a premium on forward expectations with PE at 33.24 and a free cash flow yield near 4.84%. Meyka AI’s model gives a 12-month projection of $7.32, implying 7.38% upside from today’s price, and a three-year target of $9.81, implying 43.76% upside. These model projections sit alongside a Street mix of buy and hold ratings, so investors should balance the company’s AI and cloud investments against near-term revenue timing risks. As an AI-powered market analysis platform, Meyka AI highlights that NOK’s durability depends on execution of cloud deals and timing clarity in 2026 guidance. Forecasts are projections and not guarantees.
FAQs
Did Nokia beat earnings and why did NOK stock fall?
Nokia beat Q4 sales and EPS expectations, but management issued softer 2026 guidance. The market focused on the weaker guide, which pushed NOK stock down despite the beat.
What are Meyka AI’s forecasts for NOK stock?
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects $7.07 (monthly), $7.32 (12 months), and $9.81 (three years). These are model-based projections and not guarantees.
Is Nokia a buy after the earnings report?
Meyka AI assigns NOK a B+ (BUY) grade, factoring growth, sector, and analyst consensus. Investors should weigh guidance risk against cash flow and R&D-driven opportunities.
Disclaimer:
Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
