QAN.AX Stock Today: December 27 — Boxing Day Fare War Hits Yields
The Qantas share price is in focus today as Boxing Day discounts sweep the local market. Virgin promoted fares from $49 and Qantas launched a national sale, setting up tougher competition on key domestic routes. Investors are weighing near-term yield pressure against strong peak-season loads. At A$10.28, QAN.AX trades near its 200‑day average, with momentum firm but not stretched. We break down price action, unit revenue risks, core fundamentals, and what could drive the next move for Australian holders.
Boxing Day fare war and near-term yield impact
Virgin’s Boxing Day offers started from $49 one way, while Qantas rolled out a national sale that included sharp fares on popular leisure city pairs. Media reports also flagged aggressive cuts on Northern Territory routes, adding to pressure on yields as rivals match deals. See coverage at The Mercury and NT News.
Peak holiday demand should keep planes full, but heavy promotion can trim unit revenue on major domestic routes. Matching and extended sale windows may pull forward bookings at lower prices. We will watch commentary on load factors versus average fares. If discounting persists into late January, domestic RASK could soften, with Loyalty earnings and international mix helping to cushion consolidated margins.
What the market is pricing into QAN today
The Qantas share price sits at A$10.28, down 0.8% today, trading between A$10.23 and A$10.33. Price is above the 50‑day average (A$10.05) and near the 200‑day (A$10.29). RSI is 61 and Stochastic 89, showing firm momentum. The Bollinger upper band at A$10.36 is immediate resistance; intraday support sits near A$10.23 and the 50‑day around A$10.05.
Turnover of 1.11 million shares is below the 5.64 million average, hinting at a quieter tape. MACD is positive (0.08) and ADX is 20.8, so the trend is present but not strong. ATR of A$0.19 frames typical daily swings. A push and hold above A$10.36 could target the recent range highs, while a slip below A$10.05 risks a retest of A$9.94.
Fundamentals to watch after the sales
On valuation, Qantas trades at 9.9 times TTM earnings and 0.66 times sales, with EV/EBITDA near 5.2. The dividend yield screens at 5.1% with a 25% payout. Leverage remains high: debt-to-equity 10.2 and current ratio 0.36. Net debt to EBITDA is a manageable 1.39, but free cash flow yield is modest at 2.2%, so capital discipline remains key.
If domestic yields soften, mix can help. International routes and premium cabins tend to support average fares, while Jetstar can flex capacity on price-sensitive leisure demand. Qantas Loyalty adds a steady, high-margin stream that is less tied to short-term fares. Management commentary on capacity plans and redemption trends will guide how well profits absorb discounting.
Valuation, scenarios and our take
The Qantas share price looks reasonable versus cash flow and EBITDA multiples, while price-to-book is inflated by a low book base. Near term, sharper discounts may trim RASK, yet full planes and better mix can offset. Key swing factors are how long promos run, competitor matching depth, and whether February and March shoulder periods see firmer fares.
Meyka’s Stock Grade is B+ with a Buy tilt. Baseline projections imply A$10.59 in one month and A$11.74 over a year, with wide error bands. Upcoming markers include December traffic data, commentary on unit revenues, and any capacity updates. Our feed shows the next results date as 19 Feb 2026, which companies can change.
Final Thoughts
For Australian investors, the Qantas share price today reflects a tug-of-war between Boxing Day discount pressure and strong holiday loads. Technicals show firm momentum near the 200‑day average, with A$10.36 as the first resistance to clear. Fundamentals are sound on earnings and EBITDA multiples, but leverage and a thin liquidity cushion warrant attention. Focus on three items in the weeks ahead: duration of sale fares, competitor matching, and any capacity tweaks across domestic and international. If yields stabilise into late summer and mix holds, valuation leaves room for gradual upside. Keep position sizes disciplined and reassess on any break of the A$10.05 support.
FAQs
Deep discounts lift load factors but can trim unit revenue if promos run long or are widely matched. The market quickly prices any sign that average fares on key domestic routes are falling. Investors weigh this against loyalty earnings, international mix, and how quickly pricing normalises.
Intraday support sits near A$10.23 and the 50‑day average around A$10.05. Resistance is close to the Bollinger upper band near A$10.36. A sustained move above A$10.36 can open a push toward prior range highs, while a break below A$10.05 risks a deeper pullback.
Promotions can lower near-term yields, especially on trunk routes. Full planes help, but if a larger share of seats sells at lower prices, unit revenue softens. Mix matters: premium cabins, international routes, and Loyalty earnings can cushion consolidated margins while domestic pricing resets.
The TTM dividend yield is about 5.1% with a 25% payout ratio, which looks manageable. However, leverage is high and free cash flow yield is modest. Sustained fare pressure would shift focus to cash generation and capital spending, so investors should monitor updates on bookings and pricing.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
