SAP.DE Stock Today: January 29 Cloud Backlog Miss Sparks 12% Selloff
SAP stock slid on January 29 as management flagged slower 2026 growth for Current Cloud Backlog, overshadowing a new buyback of up to €10 billion. Shares of SAP.DE opened at €179.00, fell to €162.12, and recently traded near €164.62. The drop pressured the DAX and raised questions about cloud order momentum. For Swiss investors, currency exposure to EUR and index weighting matter. We break down what moved the market, how the DAX reacted, and what to watch next for SAP stock.
What drove today’s selloff
SAP signaled slower growth in 2026 for Current Cloud Backlog, a key lead indicator for subscription revenue. That tempered medium-term growth expectations and overshadowed solid adoption of S/4HANA. Investors focused on durability of orders, not just near-term revenue. The result was a fast de-rating in SAP stock as growth-sensitive holders repriced risk while awaiting clearer momentum in large cloud deals and conversion of pipeline to backlog.
Management announced up to €10 billion in buybacks, adding to shareholder returns alongside a roughly 1.2% dividend yield. Balance sheet metrics look sound, with debt-to-equity near 0.21 and interest coverage above 8x. Still, the buyback did not offset concerns around cloud backlog growth into 2026. For now, demand signals and quarterly cloud order intake outweigh capital return support for SAP stock.
Price action and DAX market impact
Shares opened at €179.00, quickly undercut the 50-day average of €206.00 and the 200-day near €234.34, and set a low at €162.12. Last trade was €164.62, down 15.81% versus the prior close of €195.54, on volume of 15.8 million against a 1.35 million average. With a P/E around 32.6 and a 52-week high of €283.50, the multiple compressed as growth questions hit SAP stock.
The plunge pulled the DAX into the red at the open, as noted by Swiss outlet cash.ch. For Swiss investors, DAX and Europe equity ETFs likely felt the hit, with EUR exposure adding currency risk versus CHF. We think position sizing, currency hedging, and index concentration checks are prudent while SAP stock volatility remains elevated.
What analysts and models say
Jefferies kept a Buy rating and a €290 target, while flagging that investor focus is squarely on cloud order momentum and guidance durability. See summary on finanzen.ch. The message to investors is clear: watch Current Cloud Backlog, S/4HANA migrations, and conversion of wins into recurring revenue before leaning back into SAP stock after the drop.
At roughly 32.6x TTM earnings and 6.26x sales, valuation remains growth-dependent. Profitability is solid, with net margin near 19% and ROE about 15.5%. Our Stock Grade stands at B+ with a Buy suggestion, but timing matters. Swiss investors may want staged entries and to track backlog trend updates, as these will likely drive the next leg for SAP stock.
Technical and risk snapshot
The technical picture shows pressure: RSI 45.31 is neutral-to-weak, ADX 29.33 signals a strong trend, and MACD is negative while the histogram has turned slightly positive. Price sits well below the Bollinger middle band around €208.08, showing downside bias. ATR at 4.37 points to elevated volatility. Until momentum stabilizes, rallies may fade quickly in SAP stock.
Key risks include a slower cloud backlog, macro softness in Europe, and execution on S/4HANA migrations. Currency remains relevant for Swiss holders given EUR exposure. Near-term catalysts: Q1 cloud orders, any updated backlog commentary, details on buyback pacing, and large enterprise deal wins. Clear improvement here could reset sentiment and steady SAP stock.
Final Thoughts
Today’s move was driven by a reset in cloud backlog expectations that outweighed a sizeable buyback. Price sliced through key moving averages on heavy volume, and the DAX felt it. For Swiss investors, we suggest focusing on three items: backlog growth into 2026, quarterly cloud order intake, and the conversion of S/4HANA wins into recurring revenue. Consider EUR exposure within DAX or Europe funds and the role of SAP in your allocation. If you plan to add, staged entries and strict risk limits can help while volatility is high. Confirm improving order momentum before leaning harder into SAP stock.
FAQs
Why did SAP stock drop today despite a €10B buyback?
The selloff followed management’s signal that 2026 growth in Current Cloud Backlog will be slower than investors expected. Backlog is a key lead indicator for subscription revenue, so growth concerns outweighed capital return news. The market repriced the stock’s growth outlook, pushing shares sharply lower despite the buyback announcement and otherwise solid balance sheet strength.
How does today’s move affect Swiss investors with DAX exposure?
The decline weighed on the DAX at the open, which can impact Swiss investors holding DAX or Europe equity ETFs and funds. Beyond price, there is currency risk since these vehicles are typically EUR-denominated. Review position size, consider hedging if needed, and watch upcoming SAP updates because they can drive both SAP and index-level performance.
What metrics should I watch before buying SAP stock?
Focus on Current Cloud Backlog growth, quarterly cloud order intake, and S/4HANA migration traction. Also track operating margins, free cash flow, and updates on the buyback pace. From a chart view, watch whether price reclaims the 50-day and 200-day averages with rising volume, which would signal improving trend strength and buyer conviction in SAP stock.
Is SAP stock still expensive after the drop?
Even after the decline, valuation remains tied to growth delivery. SAP trades around 32.6x TTM earnings and 6.26x sales. Profitability is strong, but the multiple assumes steady cloud expansion. If backlog and order growth re-accelerate, the premium looks defendable. If not, further multiple compression is possible, so timing and evidence of demand recovery matter.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
