Who is Shigeaki Koga, and why do investors care now?

Shigeaki Koga is a former Japanese bureaucrat and policy commentator. His latest column warns that the Sanae Takaichi government’s two-thirds lower-house majority could speed security legislation while Japan–China tensions rise. Investors care because faster lawmaking and tougher rhetoric can lift policy risk premia, shift sector costs, and move JPY during headline cycles.

What does a two-thirds lower-house majority change in practice?

It allows the ruling bloc to pass a bill again and override Upper House resistance. That compresses timelines for security and economic security packages. Committee control and cabinet orders can further shape enforcement. For markets, this means tighter consultation windows, faster compliance deadlines, and a higher chance of surprise clauses that alter sector costs and valuations.

How could Japan–China tensions affect Japanese markets and JPY?

Harsher rhetoric can raise headline risk for exporters and tourism, increase hedging demand, and support defense-related flows. JPY may firm on risk aversion, but it can weaken if growth fears dominate. Watch official statements, broker surveys, and guidance changes. Frequent escalations often widen risk spreads and increase FX volatility around policy and security news.

Which sectors in Japan look most exposed to Japan policy risk now?

Telecom, platforms, cloud, and advertising face potential data and content rule changes. Defense, cyber, and parts suppliers could see steadier demand if budgets rise. Exporters with larger China exposure face guidance risk from Japan–China tensions. We suggest mapping compliance lead times, capex needs, and revenue sensitivity before policy packets and cabinet orders are finalized.

Law and Government

Shigeaki Koga Flags Takaichi’s Power, China Risk — February 17

ByDanny Kontos February 17, 2026February 17, 2026

Shigeaki Koga warns investors that the Sanae Takaichi government, backed by a two-thirds lower-house majority, could fast-track security bills while weakening institutional checks. Rising Japan–China tensions add near-term geopolitical risk. We explain what this means for policy speed, surveillance proposals, and market channels. Watch defense outlays, data oversight, coalition discipline, and JPY sensitivity as the second Takaichi cabinet starts with high approval. We map practical signals, timing, and actions for portfolios in Japan (JPY).