SHOP Stock Today: January 21 RBC Reiterates $200 Target Amid Valuation Debate
Shopify stock is in focus after RBC Capital reiterated Outperform with a US$200 Shopify price target, even as shares weakened. Today, SHOP fell 4.1% to US$138.54, keeping the Shopify valuation debate front and centre for Canadian investors. The company still posts strong growth and solid margins, but the premium multiple raises questions during volatility. With earnings due on February 11, 2026, we review what the rating means, key levels, and how to position around near-term risks.
RBC reiteration meets a sliding share price
RBC kept its Outperform and US$200 target on Shopify stock, offering support after a sharp pullback. Shares closed at US$138.54, down 4.1%, with an intraday range of US$137.69 to US$146.10. The reaffirmed view suggests confidence in execution and growth drivers despite recent pressure. Source: Investing.com.
For Canadians, the call comes from a domestic bank following a homegrown tech champion that also trades on the TSX in Canadian dollars. The signal may steady sentiment after a weak week for SHOP shares. It underscores long-run platform durability while acknowledging near-term macro caution that has weighed on e-commerce and software names across North American markets.
Valuation premium under the microscope
Shopify stock trades at about 101.9x trailing earnings and 17.0x sales, with a price to book near 14.6. Free cash flow yield is roughly 1.06% and net margin is 16.7%. Return on equity sits around 15.1% with low leverage, shown by a 0.089 debt-to-equity ratio. These figures explain why the valuation premium draws scrutiny.
Growth remains robust. FY 2024 revenue rose 25.8%, operating cash flow grew 71.2%, and free cash flow climbed 76.5%. Expanding merchant solutions and payments, rising operating leverage, and disciplined spending support the story. The valuation review remains active as investors balance premium versus execution. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Technical setup and key levels
Technicals look mixed. Price sits well below the lower Bollinger Band at 158.38 and under the 50-day average at 159.31, while hovering above the 200-day at 134.49. RSI is neutral at 50.6 and ADX at 11 signals no strong trend. ATR of 6.16 implies wide swings. Near-term, 134.5 is key support, with 146 to 159 as a resistance zone.
Earnings on February 11, 2026, are the main catalyst. We will watch gross payment volume, subscription adds, blended take rate, and operating margin. Commentary on consumer demand, marketing spend, and FX effects will matter for Canadian portfolios. Any guidance shift could reset expectations for SHOP shares after the recent slide.
Portfolio tactics for SHOP shares
We prefer staged entries and dollar-cost averaging to manage valuation risk in Shopify stock. Focus on execution in payments, monetization, and margin expansion over several quarters. Keep position sizes aligned with risk tolerance, and use the upcoming report to reassess assumptions on growth, profitability, and capital intensity.
Respect volatility. Use the 200-day average near 134.5 as a reference for risk, and watch 146 to 159 for potential bounces or failures. ATR near 6 suggests stops of 1 to 1.5 times ATR. Today’s volume of 15.8 million versus a 7.7 million average hints at distribution, so stay disciplined.
Final Thoughts
RBC’s Outperform and US$200 target offers a supportive backdrop, but the market still questions the size of the premium embedded in Shopify stock. Multiples near 102x earnings and 17x sales require consistent growth and expanding cash generation. Technically, the share price sits below key bands and the 50-day average, with the 200-day near US$134.5 as a crucial level. With earnings on February 11, 2026, investors should focus on payment mix, merchant activity, and margins. We favour measured entries, clear risk limits, and close attention to guidance that could shift sentiment on SHOP shares in Canadian portfolios.
FAQs
What is RBC’s latest Shopify price target and rating?
RBC reiterated an Outperform rating on Shopify stock with a US$200 price target. The reaffirmation follows a period of share weakness and signals confidence in the company’s growth plans and profitability path. Investors should still weigh valuation risk and upcoming earnings, which could influence momentum around the analyst view.
Is Shopify stock overvalued right now?
It trades at about 101.9x trailing earnings and 17.0x sales, with a free cash flow yield near 1.06%. Those are rich levels. Bulls point to 25.8% revenue growth, improving cash flow, and low leverage. The premium can persist if execution stays strong, but any growth wobble may pressure multiples.
When is Shopify’s next earnings date?
Shopify reports on February 11, 2026. Key items to watch include gross payment volume, subscription merchant additions, blended take rate, and operating margin. Management’s outlook on consumer demand, marketing efficiency, and currency effects will help set the tone for the next leg in SHOP shares.
Is now a good time to buy SHOP shares?
It depends on your timeframe and risk tolerance. Long-term investors may consider dollar-cost averaging and position caps, given valuation. Traders can watch support near the 200-day average around US$134.5 and resistance at US$146 to US$159. Use ATR-driven stops and reassess after the earnings report.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
