Why did SHOP.TO fall after strong Shopify Q4 results?

The beat was clear on revenue and GMV, but investors focused on the implications of Shopify’s AI plans. Questions center on whether agentic commerce could pressure take rates or shift economics across the stack. Until management proves AI lifts conversion and margins, some shareholders are de-risking positions.

What is the core of Shopify’s AI strategy for commerce?

Shopify is building agentic AI to streamline product discovery, recommendations, and checkout. Management emphasized that large language models will not bypass Shopify Checkout, aiming to keep payments, data, and fraud controls on platform. The goal is higher conversion and better merchant outcomes without sacrificing monetization.

Is SHOP.TO attractive after today’s drop?

Valuation remains elevated at roughly 86x TTM EPS and 14x TTM sales, even after the decline. That can work if growth and margins expand. Investors might wait for signs that take rates hold, payments attach rises, and AI features drive conversion, while watching price reclaim long-term moving averages.

What levels and indicators should traders watch now?

We would watch the C$150 to C$165 zone, plus closes relative to the 200-day average near C$190. Momentum is neutral with RSI around 52. ATR near 8.8 signals sizable daily swings, so plan entries and exits. On-balance volume and money flow can confirm whether dips attract real demand.

How should Canadian investors frame risk on SHOP.TO?

Given volatility, consider smaller position sizes, staged buys, and predefined exits. Align holding period with thesis checkpoints, like take-rate stability and AI adoption metrics. If the stock remains below key moving averages, keep risk tight. Reassess if evidence shows AI lifts conversion without hurting payment economics.

Global Market Insights

SHOP.TO Stock Today: February 11 — Q4 Beat, Shares Fall on AI Push

ByHuzaifa Zahoor February 12, 2026February 12, 2026

Shopify stock earnings are in focus after Q4 topped expectations, but SHOP.TO slipped on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Revenue rose 31% to US$3.67 billion and GMV climbed 31.1% to US$123.8 billion. Management stressed that large language models will not bypass Shopify Checkout, aiming to protect payment economics as AI order volume scales from a small base. With shares reacting to the company’s AI strategy, Canadian investors should weigh growth, margins, and valuation, plus today’s price action, before making trading or portfolio decisions.