S&P Global Predicts 50% Increase in Copper Demand, Highlighting Potential Supply Shortfall
Copper is becoming one of the most talked-about metals in the world. On January 8, 2026, S&P Global released a major forecast showing that global copper demand could grow by 50% by 2040. This jump is huge. It goes far beyond traditional uses in wiring and plumbing. New technology like artificial intelligence, data centers, robotics and defense systems are driving demand higher than ever.
At the same time, the world is building more electric vehicles and renewable energy systems all of which need large amounts of copper.But copper supply is not keeping pace. Mining projects take many years to start, and recycling alone won’t fill the gap.
This widening gap has caught the attention of markets, policymakers and industries. If demand continues to rise as predicted, it could reshape how we source, use and value this critical metal.
What S&P Global Predicts: The Numbers & Timeline
S&P Global’s latest report shows copper demand could grow by 50% by 2040, rising from about 28 million metric tons in 2025 to around 42 million metric tons per year. The report was published on January 8, 2026 and highlights how new growth drivers like artificial intelligence, defense technology, robotics and traditional industrial use will push demand sharply higher.
Without enough new mines or recycling efforts, global copper production could fall short by more than 10 million metric tons annually as demand peaks. This gap is a structural concern, not a temporary swing, and it reflects the metal’s central role in electrification trends, data infrastructure and national security applications.
This forecast makes it clear that copper demand is set to grow rapidly over the next decade and beyond, while supply is struggling to keep up.
The Demand Side: Why Copper Needs are Exploding?
Copper remains essential because it conducts electricity very well and resists corrosion. It is used in long-distance power lines, EV motors, renewable energy systems, and high-tech equipment. According to analysts, modern technologies like AI data centers require very large amounts of copper, in some cases 27-33 tons per megawatt of electricity capacity, far more than older data facilities, which stresses supply even more as AI infrastructures expand worldwide.
Electric vehicles also drive demand sharply upward. EVs use far more copper in batteries, wiring, and charging systems than traditional gasoline vehicles. This trend combines with renewable power systems, grid upgrades, and electronics to push total global demand well above past forecasts. Many analysts see copper as a foundation stone of the global energy shift, not just another industrial metal.
The Supply Challenge: Why Copper Production Can’t Keep Up?
The supply side is struggling. Mining production is rising only slowly, and major new projects take years, often more than a decade, to start producing. Ore grades are declining, meaning miners must work harder to get the same amount of metal. Combined with long project lead times and fewer new discoveries, industry experts warn that copper supply could lag ever further behind demand.
Production forecasts show that mined copper may peak later in the decade and then flatten or fall as older mines deplete. Even with new projects and expansions, the extra supply may not be enough to counter global demand pressures. This dynamic is a significant reason why many market observers expect prices to stay high and remain volatile
Market & Price Implications for Copper
Current market data shows copper prices are already near record highs, driven by supply worries and strong industrial demand. Prices surpassed $13,000 per tonne in early 2026, a level not seen before, partly because supply disruptions at major mines in Indonesia and Chile have tightened physical markets deeply. Geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainty have added to speculative buying and price pressure.
Financial research from J.P. Morgan points to a refined copper deficit in 2026, suggesting that tight market balances may persist at least through the year. Higher prices make mining projects more viable, but they also mean higher costs for industries that depend on copper inputs.
Copper Strategic Impacts on Industries
Rising copper demand and tight supply have broad effects across major sectors. Technology and data center companies face rising material costs, especially as AI and cloud infrastructure grow.
Electric vehicle and renewable energy companies may also experience higher production costs due to copper price pressures, affecting final product pricing and deployment timelines. Defense and robotics sectors, where copper is hard to substitute, will likely see sustained demand despite price fluctuations.
These trends encourage governments and firms to rethink supply chains, invest in recycling, and explore alternative materials where possible.
Emerging Solutions & Opportunities
Several responses are emerging. First, recycling efforts are expanding as companies look to recover copper from end-of-life products and scrap. While recycling helps, it is unlikely to fully close the gap between demand and supply by itself. Investment in new mining projects remains crucial, but these projects require large capital outlays and lengthy permitting processes.
Some regions are pushing strategic mineral policies to secure domestic copper supply. For example, the U.S. recently listed copper as a critical mineral, reflecting its importance to national infrastructure and defense needs.
Finally, efforts to innovate around copper use, such as improving copper efficiency in products or developing substitutes for specific applications, are gaining interest. But because copper has unique electrical and thermal properties, full substitution remains difficult.
Final Words
S&P Global’s forecast shows a clear trend: global copper demand is set to surge by 50% by 2040, driven by electrification, AI, and defense technology, while supply struggles to match the pace. This imbalance has already pushed prices to record levels and could continue to reshape industries and markets.
With strategic planning, more recycling, and increased investment in mining, some supply pressures may be eased. But the structural gap between copper demand and output is likely to stick around for years, influencing everything from tech and transport to global economic policy and energy transition strategies.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Copper demand is rising fast because industries like electric vehicles, renewable energy, and AI data centers need more copper. S&P Global reported this trend on January 8, 2026.
Global copper supply is struggling to keep up with demand. New mines take years to start, and recycling cannot fill the gap. This shortage is growing in 2026.
Electric vehicles and AI data centers need much more copper than older technologies. This drives demand up. S&P Global highlighted this growth on January 8, 2026.
Disclaimer
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
