The Chipotle Indicator: What Burrito Sales Reveal About a Possible Recession
In October 2025, the fast-casual chain Chipotle Mexican Grill reported that many of its core customers’ households earning under $100,000 are eating out less. This shift matters because Chipotle serves millions of people who make weekly choices about spending. When they pull back, it may signal something bigger. That’s where the so-called “Chipotle Indicator” works. It’s the idea that trends at a popular burrito chain can act as a rough barometer of the broader U.S. economy.
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