Is the Tesco share price likely to rise in 2026?

Many analysts and commentators expect gradual gains rather than big jumps. We think modest earnings growth plus the dividend could drive total returns. Key drivers are Christmas trading, volume trends, and cost control. Clear market share gains and steady cash flow would support a firmer outlook.

What is the current Tesco dividend yield?

Recent commentary points to an estimated Tesco dividend yield near 3.25%. It looks supported by recurring grocery cash flows, though payouts still depend on volumes, mix, and costs. Investors should watch trading updates for confirmation on cover, capex discipline, and any buyback flexibility across the year.

How do Aldi and Lidl affect Tesco’s prospects?

Aldi and Lidl pressure entry‑level prices and value perception. Tesco defends share through price matching, private‑label depth, and Clubcard loyalty. Execution quality matters. If Tesco holds traffic while improving mix, margins can stay resilient. If price gaps widen or service slips, earnings risk rises and sentiment could weaken.

Are UK supermarket stocks attractive in a slowdown?

They tend to be more defensive than many sectors, but returns can be capped if volumes weaken and promotions rise. We look for stable cash flows, disciplined costs, and clear share trends. Dividends can support total returns, though meaningful rerating usually needs evidence of durable earnings growth.

Global Market Insights

TSCO.L Stock Today, December 29: 2026 Analyst Upside vs UK Slowdown

ByHuzaifa Zahoor December 29, 2025December 29, 2025

The Tesco share price is in focus today as investors weigh 2026 upside calls against a possible UK spending slowdown. Tesco (TSCO.L) enters the new year with commentary pointing to modest price‑target gains and an estimated 3.25% dividend yield. We see a clear trade‑off: scale and cash generation versus volume risk if real incomes soften. Below, we break down drivers for the Tesco share price, how the dividend stacks up, and what could move UK supermarket stocks into 2026.