TSLA Stock Today: January 04 — Analysts See 10% Downside after Q4 Miss
The Tesla share price is under pressure today after a Q4 2025 delivery miss pushed several brokers to cut targets. Shares of symbol TSLA last traded at USD 438.07, down 2.59% on the day, with a USD 435.30 intraday low and USD 458.34 high. Truist cut its Tesla price target to USD 439, while TipRanks’ 32-analyst mean target of USD 393.90 implies just over 10% downside. RBC still rates Buy, and Morgan Stanley sits at Equalweight as investors balance near-term softness against longer-term FSD, robotaxi, and energy-storage catalysts.
Q4 Miss and Today’s Price Action
Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries missed street expectations, and the immediate read-through is pressure on margins and volume growth. That shortfall has cooled enthusiasm into January as the market reassesses 2026 growth. The Tesla share price reflects this shift, trading softer as investors wait for more clarity on product cadence, pricing discipline, and mix. The next key waypoint is the late-January earnings call for updated outlook and commentary.
TSLA is at USD 438.07, down 2.59% today, with a range between USD 435.30 and USD 458.34. The 50-day average sits at USD 445.10 and the 200-day at USD 359.14. Bollinger Bands hover near USD 498.33 upper, USD 464.37 middle, and USD 430.41 lower. The Tesla share price is testing the lower band, which often attracts mean-reversion traders if volume stabilises.
Analyst Targets and Ratings
Truist lowered its Tesla price target to USD 439 after the Q4 delivery miss, citing near-term volume risk and pricing pressure. See details here: Tesla stock price target lowered to $439 by Truist on Q4 delivery miss. TipRanks’ 32-analyst mean target is USD 393.90, signalling just over 10% downside from current levels for the Tesla share price.
Consensus on TSLA remains mixed: 33 Buy, 16 Hold, 12 Sell. RBC maintains a Buy rating, highlighting long-term optionality in autonomy and energy. Read the rating note: TESLA : RBC maintains a Buy rating. Morgan Stanley is at Equalweight. Our data also shows a consensus target near USD 413.46 and a median of USD 417.50, reinforcing a more cautious stance.
Analysts point to three swing factors: FSD take-rates and robotaxi timelines, storage deployments and margins, and stabilising vehicle ASPs. Clear milestones here could support the Tesla share price. Watch the earnings announcement scheduled for 28 January 2026 UTC for guidance on volume, margins, capex, and any updates on autonomy and energy backlog.
Technical Picture
Short-term momentum is soft. RSI sits at 42.19, MACD histogram is negative, and CCI prints at -145.31, which screens as oversold. Williams %R at -95.55 also shows deep short-term weakness. ADX at 21.03 suggests a modest trend. Traders will watch if the Tesla share price can reclaim the 50-day average to confirm a stabilising setup.
Immediate support is near USD 435.30 and the lower Bollinger Band around USD 430.41. Below that, recent swing lows would matter. Resistance sits near the 50-day average at USD 445.10, then today’s high at USD 458.34, and the upper band around USD 498.33. A daily close back above USD 445 could ease selling pressure.
What It Means for Australian Investors
TSLA trades in USD, so Aussie investors should factor currency when sizing positions and measuring returns in AUD. The Tesla share price can move overnight during US sessions, which impacts next-day portfolio valuations locally. Consider FX costs, taxation, and portfolio concentration rules when adding US single-stock exposure within an Australian asset allocation.
Most Australian brokers offer access to US markets for direct TSLA orders in USD. Investors who prefer diversified exposure may consider global equity or technology funds that include Tesla. Check fee structures, FX spreads, and order types. Ahead of 28 January 2026 UTC earnings, think about position sizing, stop-loss levels, and event risk management.
Final Thoughts
Bottom line, the Q4 delivery miss has reset near-term expectations, and the Tesla share price reflects that reset with a move toward the lower Bollinger Band. Street targets have drifted down, with TipRanks’ USD 393.90 mean implying about 10% downside, though RBC keeps a Buy and Morgan Stanley stays at Equalweight. Technically, a close back above the 50-day average at USD 445.10 would help. Into the 28 January 2026 UTC earnings date, we think Australian investors should keep plans simple. Define risk per trade, watch the 50-day and the USD 430 to 435 support zone, and focus on updates for FSD, robotaxi, and storage margins. The Tesla share price path in early 2026 will likely hinge on those execution signals.
FAQs
The stock is weaker after a Q4 2025 delivery miss that raised concerns about near-term volume and pricing. That has prompted target cuts and a more cautious stance from parts of the street. Traders are also reacting to soft momentum readings and price sitting near the lower Bollinger Band.
Truist cut its Tesla price target to USD 439, and TipRanks’ 32-analyst mean is USD 393.90, implying just over 10% downside. Our data shows a consensus target near USD 413.46 and median USD 417.50. Ratings split: 33 Buy, 16 Hold, 12 Sell.
Support sits near USD 435.30 and the lower Bollinger Band around USD 430.41. Resistance is at the 50-day average near USD 445.10, then USD 458.34. A daily close above the 50-day could improve momentum; a break below USD 430 may invite further weakness.
TSLA trades in USD, so factor currency impacts on returns and costs. Check your broker’s FX spread and fees, use limit orders during US hours, and size positions within your AUD-based allocation. Be mindful of event risk into 28 January 2026 UTC earnings and set clear stop-loss rules.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
