TVE.TO Stock Today: January 20 Consensus ‘Moderate Buy’, PT C$8.92

Tamarack Valley Energy stock is in focus across Canada after eight brokers kept a consensus Moderate Buy with a 12‑month average target of C$8.92. With TVE.TO trading at C$8.40 today, near its 52‑week high of C$8.60, investors are assessing room to target and sector momentum among TSX energy stocks. We break down the latest analyst context, price action, valuation, and near‑term catalysts so Canadian investors can set clear expectations and risk limits.

Analyst consensus and price context

MarketBeat reports a consensus Moderate Buy from eight brokers and an average 12‑month target of C$8.92, with several recent target increases. The stance reflects improving operations and stronger oil pricing that lifted sector sentiment. For investors tracking TSX energy stocks, this places Tamarack Valley analysts on the supportive side while keeping an eye on execution and cash flow delivery. Source

At C$8.40, TVE trades about 6% below the C$8.92 average target. Shares are up 75.57% over 1 year and 65.88% over 6 months, sitting just under the 52‑week high of C$8.60. Price is above the 50‑day average of C$7.64 and the 200‑day average of C$5.69. Today’s move is modest at -0.24%, with an intraday range of C$8.35 to C$8.60.

Among TSX energy stocks, performance leadership has rotated toward names with low leverage and improving free cash flow. Recent peer comparisons show interest in E&P operators with scale in Alberta plays such as Clearwater and Charlie Lake, areas where TVE operates. For broader context on how the name stacks up against the index and peers, see this review from Kalkine Media. Source

Technical and trading snapshot

RSI sits at 52.46, which is neutral. ADX at 22.95 suggests an emerging trend. MACD is slightly below its signal with a -0.05 histogram, hinting at a pause after a strong multi‑month rally. Rate of change is 5.73% and stochastic %K is 34.07, indicating cooling momentum. Price remains above key moving averages, which supports a constructive bias.

Average True Range is 0.22, roughly 2.6% of price, marking contained day‑to‑day swings. Bollinger upper band is 8.17 while price tested 8.60 today, a short‑term stretch that often invites consolidation. Keltner upper sits at 8.17, reinforcing similar reading. Traders may watch the 8.35 to 8.60 intraday band and the 7.75 middle Bollinger as initial support.

Today’s volume is 1.61 million shares versus a 1.63 million average, showing steady liquidity for entries and exits. On‑balance volume of 34.45 million reflects healthy accumulation through the recent uptrend. Money Flow Index at 64.54 points to moderate buying pressure rather than froth. Tight spreads and consistent turnover help reduce trading costs for Canadian accounts.

Valuation, fundamentals, and cash flow

At C$8.40, TVE trades at 2.52 times sales and 2.27 times book, with EV to EBITDA at 9.13. Debt to equity is 0.39 and net debt to EBITDA is 1.34, which is manageable for an E&P. Interest coverage of 5.72 offers adequate buffer if rates stay higher for longer. PEG of 0.32 screens as attractive.

Operating margin is 28.48%, though net margin is -5.61% and EPS is -0.17, reflecting non‑cash and timing items. Operating cash flow per share is 1.62 and free cash flow per share is 0.65, implying a free cash flow yield near 7.82%. Capital intensity remains notable, with capex at about 60% of operating cash flow.

The dividend yield is roughly 1.84% on a C$0.154 annualized payout. The payout ratio screens negative off GAAP losses, so dividend safety depends on cash generation rather than earnings. With price above key averages and cash flow improving, we expect discipline on buybacks and variable returns to stay tied to oil price strength and Clearwater performance.

Catalysts, risks, and what to watch next

Next earnings is scheduled for February 25, 2026. We will look for updates on volumes, capital spending, and free cash flow guidance for 2026. Any revisions to production or capex could shift the outlook for the TVE.TO price target and the broader Tamarack Valley analysts narrative.

TVE’s asset mix in Alberta’s Clearwater and Charlie Lake basins ties results to WTI and Canadian differentials. Strong field execution, stable decline rates, and lower service costs would support the bull case. Our internal model points to a 12‑month scenario near C$9.18, assuming stable oil and steady FCF improvement.

Risks include commodity price volatility, service cost inflation, and operational delays. Note the mixed signals in models. A composite stock grade indicates B+ with a Buy tilt, while a fundamentals‑heavy model shows C‑ and Sell due to negative EPS. If oil weakens or costs rise, valuation could compress from current levels.

Final Thoughts

For Canadian investors, Tamarack Valley Energy stock offers a clear setup. Price sits near a 52‑week high at C$8.40, about 6% below the C$8.92 average 12‑month target cited by analysts. Trend signals remain constructive, yet near‑term momentum is cooling after a strong run. Fundamentals are mixed. Cash flow and balance sheet quality look sound for an E&P, but GAAP earnings remain negative. That split explains the difference between supportive analyst views and stricter fundamental models. Into the February 25 earnings date, we would track production guidance, capex, and free cash flow. A pullback toward the 50‑day average could offer better risk‑reward. Always size positions for commodity risk and use stop levels around recent support. This is informational only, not investment advice.

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The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.