UBER Stock Today, January 07: Melius Sell Call Flags Robotaxi Threat
Uber stock is in focus today after Melius downgraded shares to Sell and set a US$73 target, pointing to rising robotaxi competition from Waymo and Tesla. For Canadians, this call matters because it questions long‑term pricing power and premium valuation. Shares of UBER recently traded near US$80 with a 52‑week high of US$101.99. Most analysts still rate the name positively, but sentiment can change quickly around autonomous driving headlines and earnings. We break down what this means for risk, timing, and portfolio positioning in Canada.
Melius’ Sell Case and Valuation Reality
Melius argues that robotaxi services could challenge Uber’s pricing and long‑term returns, undercutting its premium narrative. If autonomous fleets gain traction, commission structures and take rates may face pressure. That could weigh on growth and sentiment despite margin gains in 2024. The Sell rating and US$73 target highlight these risks and have put a spotlight on competitive threats. See coverage in Barron’s.
On recent figures, Uber trades near 3.56x sales and about 20x free cash flow, while its headline P/E sits near 11, aided by non‑recurring items. Street targets average roughly US$111.6, well above Melius’ US$73 view. That gap shows how uncertain the robotaxi timeline is for investors. If growth or take rate slows, multiples can compress quickly. Macro and FX also matter for Canadians buying a U.S. asset.
Robotaxi Competition: Waymo and Tesla
Autonomous ride services could reduce operating costs and fares, shifting share away from driver‑based platforms over time. That is the core of the Melius bear case. Waymo’s progress and Tesla’s ambitions in driverless services are the key variables. Until commercialization scales, uncertainty remains, but headlines alone can move the stock. Read the downgrade context at Yahoo Finance.
Canadian riders may not see robotaxis widely soon, but Canadian investors will likely feel the narrative in the share price. Currency adds a second layer: positions are in US$, while returns are marked in CAD. If autonomous services pressure take rates, the market could reprice growth. We think investors should monitor competitive pilots, regulatory progress, and any pricing shifts in key U.S. cities.
Earnings Setup and Technical Picture
Uber reports on February 4, 2026. We will watch Mobility take rate, Delivery unit economics, and guidance on trips and margin. Any update on autonomous partnerships, insurance costs, or safety could shape the multi‑year path. With the Sell call fresh, commentary around competition from Waymo and Tesla will be key. Cash flow quality and capital allocation will also influence how investors weigh near‑term volatility.
Price sits below the 50‑day (US$88.07) and 200‑day (US$88.06) averages, a sign of a weak trend. RSI near 40 implies neutral‑to‑soft momentum, while ADX around 30 signals a strong trend phase. Bollinger middle band is near US$83.14, upper at US$90.56, lower at US$75.71. Money Flow Index near 35 points to light buying. These levels frame risk for short‑term traders.
Portfolio Framing for Uber Stock
For traders, the Bollinger lower band around US$75‑76 is potential support, while the middle band near US$83 and upper band near US$90 mark resistance zones. Many use the 50‑day and 200‑day averages as confirmation triggers. For Canadian buyers, position sizing should factor USD exposure and event risk into earnings. Clear stop rules can help manage gaps from news and guidance changes.
- Competitive updates from Waymo and Tesla (TSLA)
- Mobility take rate and pricing trends
- Delivery profitability progress and order frequency
- Free cash flow yield (about 4.9% on recent data) and debt metrics (debt‑to‑equity ~0.47)
- Regulatory shifts on autonomous testing and insurance Together, these drivers shape the durability of cash generation and the multiple investors will pay.
Final Thoughts
Melius’ Sell rating spotlights a real risk: robotaxi services could push ride prices down and compress take rates, pressuring valuation. At the same time, most analysts still see upside, with a consensus target near US$112. Uber stock now trades below key moving averages, which tilts technicals cautious into the February 4 print. For Canadian investors, we suggest a simple plan: track earnings, watch competitive pilots, and respect levels like US$75‑76 support and US$83‑90 resistance. If management defends margins and cash flow while addressing autonomous threats, multiples can stabilize. Until then, expect headlines to drive near‑term swings.
FAQs
Why did Melius downgrade Uber stock?
Melius cut Uber to Sell with a US$73 target, warning that robotaxi services from Waymo and Tesla could erode pricing power and long‑term returns. They argue autonomous fleets may pressure take rates and margins, challenging Uber’s premium valuation. The call shifts focus to competition and execution through 2026, especially around pricing and cash flow.
Is Uber stock still a Buy after the downgrade?
The broader Street remains constructive, with roughly 29 Buys and 3 Holds and an average target near US$111.6 on recent data. That contrasts with Melius’ US$73 view. Investors should weigh autonomous competition risk, execution on margins, and cash flow quality. Upcoming earnings and guidance could narrow that wide target gap.
What should Canadian investors watch next?
Focus on February 4 earnings, Mobility take rate, Delivery unit economics, and any commentary on autonomous partnerships. Track technical levels near US$75‑76 support and US$83‑90 resistance. Also consider CAD‑USD moves, since currency shifts can change returns. Clear risk controls help manage volatility from headlines and guidance.
How do Waymo and Tesla affect the thesis?
If robotaxis scale, they could lower ride costs and take share from driver‑based platforms, pressuring pricing and take rates. Progress from Waymo and Tesla on commercialization, safety, and regulation is central to the bear case. Timelines are uncertain, so news flow alone can sway sentiment on Uber stock.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
