What exactly is changing in the ILR proposal?

The Home Office plan would extend the standard route to indefinite leave to remain to 10 years and, for health and social care visas, up to 15 years. Details on start date, transitional rules, and whether current visa holders are affected remain unclear and politically contested. These specifics will determine the scale of staffing and cost impacts.

Why does this matter for UK care providers?

A longer path to settlement could reduce the appeal of UK care roles, raising vacancies, churn, and agency reliance. That lifts wage bills and weakens margins, especially on fixed‑fee public contracts. Providers with more private‑pay clients or faster repricing cycles may handle the shock better than those reliant on local authority rates.

How could wages and inflation be affected?

If labour supply tightens, providers may raise pay to retain staff. Higher care wages can spill into nearby sectors, lifting service inflation. Contract uplifts then feed into local budgets. Markets may respond by pricing greater fiscal pressure, although the final impact depends on any exemptions, grants, and how quickly contracts reprice.

What should investors watch in the coming weeks?

Focus on guidance from the Home Office, any grandfathering for existing workers, and signals from councils on fee uplifts. Track advertised pay, agency bill rates, and vacancy duration. Company updates on staffing mix, contract renewals, and pricing power will reveal who can pass through higher costs and protect margins.

Law and Government

UK Immigration Reforms, February 13: Care Staffing Squeeze, Wage Risk

ByDanny Kontos February 14, 2026February 14, 2026

The shabana mahmood immigration re proposal to extend settlement to 10 years, and up to 15 years for health and social care visas, could reshape UK labour supply. Investors should focus on staffing in care, wage pressure, and public budget strain. Cross‑party and union criticism may slow or amend the plan, but policy risk already matters for valuations. We outline likely channels, near‑term indicators, and scenarios that could affect providers, local authorities, and inflation expectations across the UK market.