Why are UK mortgage rates rising if the BoE base rate is unchanged?

Fixed mortgages track swap rates, which reflect market expectations for inflation and future policy. War risk has lifted inflation fears, pushing swaps higher even as the BoE base rate sits at 3.75%. Lenders hedge with swaps, so higher swap costs flow into higher fixed mortgage rates.

Should I fix now or wait for UK mortgage rates to fall?

It depends on your timeline and risk tolerance. If your fix ends within six months, consider securing a product now and keep monitoring, as many lenders let you switch if rates drop before completion. If your horizon is longer, review buffers, savings, and break-even points with a broker.

What changes have we seen in NatWest mortgage rates?

NatWest mortgage rates have moved higher alongside other major lenders as sub-4% deals were withdrawn. The bank has repriced fixed products and adjusted some fees, reflecting higher swap costs and risk buffers. Check product transfers if you are an existing borrower, as these can be more competitive than new deals.

How do swap rates affect my mortgage quote?

Swap rates are the market cost of fixing interest for a set term. Lenders use them to price two and five-year fixes. When swaps rise, lenders’ hedging costs jump, so quotes increase. When swaps fall, quotes usually improve. Your individual rate still depends on LTV, fees, and product choices.

Global Market Insights

UK Mortgages March 23: War risk lifts swaps; banks hike fixed rates

ByHuzaifa Zahoor March 23, 2026March 23, 2026

UK mortgage rates are rising after lenders pulled sub-4% deals and repriced fixed products higher. The shift follows a jump in swap rates tied to Middle East war risk and stickier inflation, even as the BoE base rate holds at 3.75%. For households, higher fixed rates raise monthly costs and remortgage hurdles. For investors, pricier funding implies slower cuts from the Bank, softer housing activity, and mixed bank earnings. We explain what rising swap rates mean, how lenders are reacting, and what to watch next.