URI Stock Today: Q4 Preview and UBS Upgrade Shape Outlook — January 08
United Rentals earnings will set the tone for equipment rentals in 2026. United Rentals (URI) reports fiscal Q4 2025 on January 28, with consensus EPS at $11.86, up 2.3% year over year. UBS upgraded shares to Buy with a $1,025 price target, while BNP Paribas Exane raised its target to $920 and kept Neutral. With URI up 30.8% over 12 months, this print and the 2026 guide could reset views on construction demand, pricing, and free cash flow.
Q4 2025 preview: demand, pricing, and comps
Street models point to EPS of $11.86, up 2.3% year over year, as non-residential projects, industrial turnarounds, and federal infrastructure work support fleet utilization and pricing. The United Rentals earnings setup also reflects easier equipment availability versus 2023. Watch whether pricing and time utilization offset wage and parts inflation. Consensus expectations are outlined here source.
We see three levers: rental rates, fleet growth, and cost discipline. Low-single-digit pricing with steady utilization would support margin stability. Updates on used equipment sales and capex will frame 2026 free cash flow. Management’s commentary on energy, data centers, and public infrastructure could sway United Rentals earnings sentiment and recalibrate full-year assumptions.
Street calls: UBS upgrade and targets
UBS upgraded URI to Buy with a $1,025 target, citing resilient pricing, healthy utilization, and cycle support from infrastructure and reshoring. The call highlights improving visibility into 2026 earnings power, even as growth normalizes. The firm points to balanced supply, disciplined capex, and solid cash returns. Details are here source.
BNP Paribas Exane raised its analyst price target to $920 and kept a Neutral rating, noting both cycle tailwinds and potential moderation in non-residential starts. Dispersion remains: the Street’s consensus target sits near $988 with a median of $1,035. That spread underscores why Q4 results and the 2026 outlook could be the catalyst that tightens views.
Valuation, trading levels, and setup
URI closed at $887.01, down 0.57% on the day, within a 52-week range of $525.91 to $1,021.47. Trailing EPS is $38.85, for a 22.7x P/E, with a 0.81% dividend yield and a $57.27 billion market cap. Shares trade above the 50-day ($829.27) and 200-day ($805.71) averages. This sets a constructive backdrop into United Rentals earnings.
RSI is 68, near overbought, while ATR of 23.81 signals elevated daily swings. Price sits above the upper Bollinger Band at 861.09, suggesting a stretched short-term setup. Initial resistance is near 906.02, with support around the 50-day at 829.27. ADX at 24 indicates a moderate trend that could strengthen on a clean beat and guide.
What guidance could mean for 2026
Focus on rental rate outlook, fleet capex, and free cash flow. Low-single-digit pricing with stable time utilization would support margins. Capex discipline and used sales proceeds will frame cash returns. Commentary on data centers, grid, and public infrastructure will be key tells for regional demand and how management sizes 2026 opportunities in Q4 2025 earnings.
Base case: steady pricing and utilization, flattish equipment inflation, and disciplined capex keep EPS growth modest with a 21x to 23x multiple. Bull case: pricing upside of 1% to 2% and stronger utilization lift EPS and warrants a premium. Bear case: non-residential softness pressures rates and mix. Guidance should steer which path investors favor.
Final Thoughts
Q4 2025 is about confirm and guide. A clean top-line with firm pricing, stable utilization, and tight cost control would support margin resilience and steady cash returns. We will watch rental rates, fleet capex, used sales proceeds, and any color on data centers and public infrastructure. United Rentals earnings and the 2026 outlook should drive near-term moves, with dispersion in targets setting up a catalyst-driven trade. For positioning, consider risk controls into the print, define support and resistance, and be ready to lean into clarity from management’s guidance.
FAQs
When does United Rentals report Q4 2025 results?
United Rentals is scheduled to report fiscal Q4 2025 on January 28, 2026, after the market close. Management will provide prepared remarks and take questions on the call. Investors should look for updates on pricing, utilization, fleet capex, and free cash flow guidance for 2026.
What is the Q4 consensus for United Rentals?
Analysts expect EPS of $11.86 for Q4 2025, up 2.3% year over year. The focus is on rental rate trends, time utilization, and any read-through for 2026 demand across industrial, energy, and infrastructure end markets. Any deviations could shift full-year models quickly.
What changed in recent analyst calls on URI?
UBS upgraded URI to Buy with a $1,025 price target, citing resilient pricing and visibility. BNP Paribas Exane raised its target to $920 while keeping Neutral. The spread across analyst price target views reflects uncertainty that Q4 results and guidance could resolve.
Is URI attractive before the print?
URI trades near 22.7x trailing earnings with a 0.81% dividend yield and sits above its 50- and 200-day averages. That is constructive, but near-term moves can be sharp around earnings. Consider sizing carefully, setting alerts near key levels, and waiting for guidance if risk tolerance is low.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
