What does Larry Ellison’s $40.4bn guarantee actually do for this bid?

It reduces funding risk. Larry Ellison has offered an irrevocable personal guarantee that supports Paramount’s cash at $30 per share. That makes the offer more credible for banks and target shareholders. It can narrow the merger spread because arbitrage funds gain confidence they will be paid if approvals land. It does not solve regulatory timing or remedy demands. If regulators delay or require asset sales, the timeline can slip. Still, the backstop raises the probability that financing is not the reason the deal fails.

Should I tender my WBD shares into Paramount’s offer?

It depends on your risk and time horizon. The Paramount WBD tender offer provides cash clarity at $30, but tenders face proration if acceptances exceed the target amount. If the deal closes, upside from here may be capped by the offer price. If the deal fails, downside could be significant given Street targets below spot. Consider position size, alternative uses of capital, and taxes. Many investors hold a partial stake and keep dry powder for headlines before 21 January.

Would a Netflix HBO Max deal face fewer hurdles than a full takeover?

Potentially, since an asset-led deal can be simpler than a change of control, but it still faces scrutiny. A Netflix HBO Max deal could trigger questions on content exclusivity, distribution power, and consumer choice. A full Warner Bros Discovery takeover by Paramount would also draw attention to studio and streaming concentration, plus possible UK CMA interest. Financing looks stronger after Larry Ellison’s move, yet the biggest risks are timing, remedies, and whether regulators push for divestments that alter deal economics.

What should UK investors watch besides the headline price?

Focus on the spread to $30, volume trends against the 46.66m average, and whether WBD can hold above $28.98. Watch for amended terms, rival bidders, or board recommendations that change the odds. Factor USD exposure into position sizing or use forex hedges if needed. Read official filings rather than relying on social chatter. Larry Ellison’s guarantee helps confidence, but filings, regulatory notices, and tender updates are what move spreads and the share price.

What are the key WBD technical and valuation levels now?

Near term, $28.98 is the intraday high to clear, then $30 is the obvious ceiling. Bollinger bands show $31.49 upper and $26.64 middle, while RSI at 67.92 flags near overbought conditions. The 50-day average is $23.25 and the 200-day is $14.62, both rising. Valuation sits at a 151.32 P/E with an estimated 5.71% free cash flow yield. Street targets include a $29.50 high and $22.00 median, which frame upside and downside if the deal outcome shifts.

Global Market Insights

WBD Stock Today: Larry Ellison’s $40.4bn Guarantee Boosts Paramount’s Hostile Bid on December 22

ByHuzaifa Zahoor December 23, 2025December 23, 2025

Larry Ellison has given an irrevocable $40.4bn personal guarantee to back Paramount’s $30-per-share cash bid for Warner Bros Discovery. The move seeks to settle funding doubts and sway WBD holders ahead of the 21 January tender deadline. On 22 December, WBD rose about 3%, PARA gained roughly 7%, and Netflix ticked lower as traders weighed deal odds and antitrust risk. For UK investors, this is a live US special situation with currency, timing, and spread to assess. We explain what changes now, the price action, and how to position with discipline.